Russian Press Review: Diplomatic Efforts, Asset Seizures, and German Elections

At the same time, the durability of any agreements brokered by Donald Trump remains in question. The upcoming US congressional elections could significantly alter Washington’s policy toward Russia and Ukraine, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor at the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO University, told Izvestia.

Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, told Vedomosti he is skeptical about the possibility of a "diplomatic breakthrough," as the positions of the main parties to the conflict -- Kiev and Moscow -- remain far apart. At the same time, Suslov said that interim agreements could be reached on resuming the active phase of the negotiation process.

"Fundamentally, the discussion most likely concerned the resumption of direct Russian-Ukrainian contacts in one format or another -- this is how all previous rounds of Mr. Witkoff’s diplomatic activity ultimately concluded. However, preparations for such contacts could take the entire fall, or even longer if the parties so choose," Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University, told the newspaper. He recalled that several months elapsed between Anchorage and the first Russian-Ukrainian contacts.

The EU responded positively to the US envoys’ visit Izvestia writes. However, despite calls from Europe to resume direct dialogue with Moscow, Brussels has yet to take any concrete steps. Individual European countries should become involved in the dialogue on their own, Czech member of the European Parliament Ivan David told the newspaper.

European countries will remain outside the main negotiation process in the near future, political scientist Evgeny Mikhailov believes. If Washington succeeds in making progress in the dialogue between Moscow and Kiev, the EU will have to adapt to the situation -- even if its own policy toward Ukraine remains unchanged.

Izvestia: Netherlands pushes EU to revisit use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

The Netherlands intends to push for the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, the country’s embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. However, there is no consensus on the issue within the European Union itself. Belgium, whose Euroclear depository holds the bulk of Russia’s reserves, has once again voiced opposition. Belgian officials warned of serious legal risks and a potential blow to the reputation of the entire European financial system. The Hague’s initiative, which has also been joined by Spain, Poland and Sweden, has received no public endorsement from other countries.

"The use of frozen assets to support Ukraine is something the Dutch government has consistently advocated," the country’s embassy in Russia told Izvestia. "Together with Poland, Spain and Sweden, we have asked the European Commission to develop a solution for the use of assets frozen at the international financial company Euroclear. This is necessary because Ukraine requires both short-term and long-term financial support," the embassy added.

The main dispute concerns the procedure for seizing the reserves themselves. The European Commission has repeatedly rejected proposals for outright confiscation, considering the use of profits generated by the assets alone to be legally safer, Izvestia writes.

Belgium is concerned that the seizure of sovereign funds could violate international law. Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Malta, Slovakia, France and the Czech Republic have also opposed confiscation.

Political scientist Egor Sergeev believes that the Netherlands’ latest initiative is merely another stage in a debate that the European Union will continue to revisit. According to him, the EU has been consistently seeking a way to secure long-term financing for Ukraine while placing the smallest possible burden on its own budgets, which is why the issue of confiscating Russian assets periodically returns to the agenda. At the same time, the expert told Izvestia he doubts that the current round of negotiations will produce any concrete decisions: the EU has already established a number of mechanisms that effectively use frozen Russian reserves as financial collateral. However, the likelihood that the assets will be returned to Russia also remains extremely low.

Vedomosti: US oil push may revive Venezuela’s output but full recovery remains years away

Contracts awarded under President Donald Trump’s August 31 deal with Venezuela to control 65 bln barrels of its oil, covering the development of three fields by US-based Chevron and Italy’s Eni, are unlikely for now to significantly increase production and do not threaten China’s interests in the country. However, the transfer of 17 fields for 100 years to North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) affects Chinese assets and threatens both Caracas’ debt payments to Beijing and Venezuelan oil supplies to China, although these losses are not critical for the Chinese, experts surveyed by Vedomosti agreed.

The return of international companies to Venezuela will help further boost the country’s recovering oil production, as has already occurred in other countries. With Western assistance, Caracas could return to the peak production levels seen 30 years ago by around 2035, energy expert Kirill Rodionov told the newspaper.

However, investment by the two companies alone is not yet on the scale needed to rapidly "cure" Venezuela’s oil industry, which has been deteriorating since 2018; the country needs hundreds of billions, rather than tens of billions, of dollars, Viktor Kheifets, editor-in-chief of the Latin America journal, believes.

At the same time, the projects awarded to Chevron and Eni are not among the Chinese projects that were being developed before the change of power from Nicolas Maduro, who was abducted in January, to interim President Delcy Rodriguez, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, Igor Yushkov, told Vedomosti.

China has already recovered the bulk of the principal on Venezuela’s debt, with mainly interest payments remaining, which even the previous authorities in Caracas considered excessive, Kheifets noted. Caracas owed Beijing $10-15 bln out of a total external debt of $150-200 bln, according to a June estimate by S&P Global Energy.

At the same time, Beijing has significantly reduced its dependence on Venezuelan oil in recent years, Kheifets said. However, these supplies generated high margins for Chinese buyers because of the discounts, Yushkov noted. "Refining in China will be less efficient without advantageous Venezuelan and now Iranian oil. The United States has deprived Beijing of such profitable suppliers, even though alternatives remain available," he said.

Vedomosti: AfD lands record result in Saxony-Anhalt, putting Merz under pressure

Elections to the local parliament (Landtag) were held on September 6 in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, with the country’s main opposition party, the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), the clear favorite. According to an exit poll released by broadcaster ARD after voting ended, the AfD is leading the election in Saxony-Anhalt with 44.5% of the vote - its best result in the history of Landtag elections. Experts told Vedomosti that attempts to keep the AfD out of power could produce an unstable government and further benefit the party, whose record showing reflects broader economic, institutional, and social discontent, while the setback could intensify pressure on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

In theory, the other parties in Saxony-Anhalt could unite against the AfD or form a minority government, senior research fellow at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University Artyom Sokolov told the newspaper. However, the expert explained that such a government would be unlikely to remain viable, while the AfD would benefit either way, as it could argue that it was being deliberately kept out of power and that the firewall (Brandmauer) policy was leading to an ineffective government. For Merz, the AfD’s victory represents a serious blow that could prompt members of his CDU party to call for his resignation.

The AfD’s success cannot be explained solely by the migration issue or the oft-cited "nostalgia for East Germany," Vladislav Belov, deputy director of the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted. Rather, it reflects a combination of accumulated distrust toward federal institutions and traditional parties, a sense that eastern German interests are not sufficiently recognized, and contemporary concerns including the state of the economy, energy costs, migration, education and infrastructure.

As for Merz’s own political future after the election, the expert believes that the CDU has no interest in replacing the chancellor. Merz currently serves as an anchor for maintaining stability within the coalition, which, despite its difficulties, will continue to function.

Kommersant: OPEC+ leaves October production quotas unchanged amid Hormuz uncertainty

The seven-member OPEC+ alliance, whose influence over the oil market has weakened because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has kept October oil production quotas at September levels. Market participants told Kommersant that producers are still falling short of their current output targets, making an increase in quotas unlikely in the coming months.

October production quotas for the alliance’s largest producers - Saudi Arabia and Russia - will remain at 10.478 mln barrels per day (bpd) and 9.949 mln bpd, respectively. Iraq’s quota will stand at 4.431 mln bpd, followed by 2.676 mln bpd for Kuwait, 1.628 mln bpd for Kazakhstan, 1.007 mln bpd for Algeria, and 841,000 bpd for Oman.

The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for October 4. Kommersant’s sources believe producers will also maintain the current level of production at that meeting.

As Kommersant’s sources noted, OPEC+ decisions remain largely formal for now because, in practice, partners are producing well below their target levels due to the situation in the Middle East. The alliance’s influence on the market is currently severely constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has left a significant share of the world’s oil production trapped, and this situation is unlikely to be resolved in the coming months. As a result, the sources believe production quotas for OPEC+ members will most likely remain unchanged through the end of the year.

Igor Yushkov, expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, told Kommersant there is no point in deciding to increase OPEC+ production while Middle Eastern oil remains trapped in the Persian Gulf and the capacity of Russia’s export infrastructure remains constrained.