
AI-generated summary
The US-Russia diesel deal was negotiated in the context of rising energy prices as a result of the war against Iran and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. It is intended to help American farmers while also serving as a door opener for peace talks with Russia, despite existing 2022 sanctions against Russian energy imports.
Washington/New York/Kyiv/Moscow. US President Donald Trump has defended a diesel agreement with Russia against cross-party criticism. The agreement will help American farmers and reduce high fuel prices, Trump said on Monday (local time) in Washington. According to US government circles, the deal is actually meant to open Moscow up to peace talks.
U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff told Ukrainian officials in Miami on Friday that the deal was intended to soften Russia's stance and bring President Vladimir Putin back to the negotiating table, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Nowak announced that Russia could increase its diesel exports to the pre-crisis level of more than three million tons per month. The agreement is already relieving the burden on the world market, Nowak said on the Russian state television station Rossiya-24. Russia's diesel exports have collapsed due to Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and self-imposed restrictions on sales abroad.
Trump announced on Friday that the US government was temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian fuel so that Russia could supply diesel to global markets. However, Republican and Democratic senators on Sunday called on Trump to change course. The agreement violates a 2022 law that bans the import of Russian energy as long as Moscow does not end its aggression against Ukraine.
Trump rejected criticism from his own party. According to him, Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacks on each other's energy infrastructure.
However, the reality on the ground was different: Moscow attacked six Ukrainian energy facilities on Monday, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He also denied responsibility for the high fuel prices in an interview with Fox News on Monday. Rather, prices depend on the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, he explained. Zelensky criticized the diesel agreement as a reversal in years of Western policy aimed at isolating the Russian economy.
The price of diesel in the US has risen by more than 60 percent since Trump launched a war against Iran seven months ago. The high prices threaten the narrow majority of Republicans in the US Congress in the midterm elections on November 3rd. Trump announced that Russia would immediately deliver more than 300,000 tons of diesel to US and global markets. Another 500,000 tons were to follow in November and then another million tons.
However, according to the Reuters news agency, analysts doubted that the quantity would be enough to depress prices, as it corresponds to around twelve hours of global consumption. The first tranche of 2.25 million barrels alone does not even cover the daily needs of the US transport sector.
Behind the scenes, there are doubts about Trump's repeated claims that Putin wants to end the war. His own envoys told Ukrainian representatives in Miami that the Russian president was not ready to negotiate at the moment. Previous US offers such as sanctions relief could not have persuaded Moscow to agree to a comprehensive ceasefire.
According to an insider close to the Kremlin, Putin will only return to the negotiating table once he has conquered the remaining 11 percent of the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass. He wants to present this as a victory domestically. The government in Kiev rejects cessions of territory, but sees a possible basis for a peace agreement in freezing the conflict along the current front lines.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The US Congress will take legal action against the diesel deal because it violates the 2022 ban on Russian energy imports.
Likely · Within weeks
Russia will increase its diesel exports to pre-crisis levels of more than three million tons per month, as announced by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Very likely · Within months
Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities will continue as long as the diesel agreement remains in place and an effective security guarantee for the energy infrastructure is not provided.
Possible · Within weeks

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