Armament: Next-generation fighter jet: Is Merz repeating Merkel's strategic mistakes?

The Chancellor favors German participation in the British-Italian-Japanese fighter jet program. But his defense minister has concerns. Airbus is also reluctant.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz is committed to Germany's entry into the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), which Great Britain, Italy and Japan are pushing forward together.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, however, favors cooperation with Sweden on a new fighter jet program.

The Airbus defense division demands a fair share of the GCAP project and rejects a junior partner role.

Germany will soon have to decide whether to join the already advanced GCAP project or pursue other options to develop the sixth-generation fighter jet.

Berlin, Munich. Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Boris Pistorius (SPD) like to demonstrate their solidarity, on the government bench in the Bundestag, on joint trips abroad or on visits to troops. But now the Chancellor and his Defense Minister are at loggerheads on a crucial strategic issue.

It's about the plan to develop a next-generation fighter jet. After the failure of the FCAS project with France, Germany has to look for new partners. Merz and his advisors favor joining the “Global Combat Air Program” (GCAP), which Great Britain, Italy and Japan have been pushing forward together for several years.

Pistorius, however, has concerns - and is receiving support from the defense industry. Merz and Pistorius met on Friday to discuss the issue, Handelsblatt learned.

The government did not want to officially comment on the content of the conversation. “The Chancellor and the Defense Minister regularly exchange information about the status of defense planning and armaments projects,” it simply said. “All possible topics” would be addressed. According to Handelsblatt information, no decision has been made. They said they would continue to examine various options.

There isn't much time left to find common ground. The Chancellor also knows this. A decision should be made in the coming weeks as to whether Germany can take part in the GCAP project, said Merz at the end of October after a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo. “We have to ensure that we reduce the number of systems, that we reduce the complexity in the systems and, above all, that we increase the number of units,” he explained. “This is only possible if we launch joint projects.”

But Pistorius and the German aviation industry think little of the idea of ​​integrating Germany into a cooperation project that started several years ago. The British, Japanese and Italians distributed the tasks among themselves. Germany would be of particular interest to them as a donor, rather than as an equal industrial partner. From the Defense Minister's point of view, the better alternative would be to start a new program with Sweden in which German companies could play a greater role.

Sweden developed the successful Gripen fighter jet and has signaled interest in collaborating with Germany. The problem is that there is no clear governing majority in Sweden after the September elections. As long as the state of limbo in Stockholm continues, it will be difficult to make progress with the plans.

The reason why the federal government is even looking for new partners is the failure of FCAS. As part of this project, Germany, France and Spain wanted to develop a sixth-generation manned combat aircraft that would operate in a network with unmanned drones and would replace the German Eurofighter and the French Rafale from the 2040s.

FCAS was based on a political agreement between then Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron. German industry was never convinced of the cooperation; the differences with the French were too great.

In June, the federal government ended the joint development of the manned jet. Over the years, it has not been possible to reach an agreement between the Dassault and Airbus companies involved on the leadership role in the project and the division of work.

There is a risk of similar conflicts at GCAP, fears in the Ministry of Defense and in the German aviation industry. According to Handelsblatt information, the head of the armaments division of the aircraft manufacturer Airbus, Michael Schöllhorn, tried to change the Chancellor's mind on his trip to Asia.

Merz and his advisors not only want to use the fighter jet to strengthen the Bundeswehr's capabilities, but also to send a signal in foreign policy. Merz is committed to tying the British closer to Europe again, and at the same time he wants to strengthen cooperation with Japan. A jointly developed fighter jet would underline Germany's commitment to cooperation between the Central Powers.

The industry, on the other hand, warns against viewing important arms projects primarily as foreign policy instruments. It is said that Merz is making the same mistake that Merkel made. The lesson from FCAS is that politicians need to take greater account of business concerns.

Defense Minister Pistorius outlined three possible perspectives after the FCAS shutdown. Firstly, Germany could order additional F-35 fighter jets from US manufacturer Lockheed Martin – at least as a temporary measure. Secondly, joining an ongoing international project like GCAP is conceivable. And thirdly, Germany could, if necessary, start its own development with other countries. The Swedish manufacturer Saab, which can look back on a long experience in military aircraft construction with the Draken, Viggen and Gripen fighter jets, would be an ideal partner here.

At the beginning of November, Pistorius said during his British counterpart Wes Streeting's inaugural visit to Berlin that he would hold talks with the GCAP partner countries in the next two weeks. “We agree that time is a very critical criterion in this question,” emphasized the SPD politician.

Japan in particular is striving to develop fighter jets as quickly as possible in view of China's desire for expansion in the Indo-Pacific. “Japan would like to have a decision by the beginning of the new year,” the Chancellor said after his meeting with Prime Minister Takaichi. It is currently difficult to say whether this will happen so quickly. It is now up to the defense ministers to explore. The “inspection order” has been issued.

But Pistorius remains skeptical: “For example, we have to check whether Germany’s participation could lead to a longer delay that would hardly be acceptable for everyone involved,” he said in a recent interview with the Funke media.

In October, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham offered Chancellor Merz a chance to join the GCAP project. The head of the Italian defense company Leonardo, Lorenzo Mariani, also explained in the Handelsblatt interview that there are many advantages for German industrial partners with GCAP. So far, in addition to Leonardo, BAE Systems from Great Britain and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries from Japan are the main project partners. Only in the summer did the British government significantly increase funding for GCAP to 8.6 billion (around 10.3 billion euros) pounds for the next four years.

The only problem from a German perspective is that the work is already well advanced and the work packages are largely distributed. A decision as to whether Germany could participate would be made jointly by Great Britain, Italy and Japan, Streeting said during his visit to Berlin. We will look at what requirements Germany places on the project and whether there are synergies.

Pistorius explained that the three GCAP partners had already been negotiating for five years to reach the current contract status. It shouldn't take another five years for the four of us to come to an agreement. “This creates a lot of time pressure,” emphasized the Defense Minister.

The Airbus Group fears that it will only be able to join GCAP in a junior partner role, but does not want to be satisfied with that. Airbus manager Schöllhorn recently said in an interview with Handelsblatt that his company claimed “a fair share” of the project.

“We’re not just going to make the fin or a wing, so to speak,” Schöllhorn said. His company can make valuable contributions in the areas of cockpits, sensors, stealth capabilities, networking and engines. The Airbus defense division currently still has orders for the Eurofighter and the A400M military transporter on the books or in prospect, but is dependent on new projects when these programs expire in the foreseeable future.

The pressure on Germany to quickly develop a sixth-generation fighter aircraft would decrease if the Bundeswehr ordered more US F-35 fighter jets. The fifth-generation machine could then form the backbone of the Air Force for decades.

So far only 35 machines have been ordered to ensure Germany's so-called nuclear participation. However, the Air Force leadership can easily imagine additional units - up to and including setting up a complete second squadron with around 35 F-35 aircraft. However, Airbus armaments chief Schöllhorn had made it clear that if such numbers were ordered, developing one's own sixth-generation fighter jet would hardly be worthwhile.