S&P Global Affirms Saudi Arabia's Credit Rating at A+ with Stable Outlook
Agency cites economic diversification and infrastructure resilience as key factors in maintaining stable outlook despite regional conflict.
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S&P Global has affirmed Saudi Arabia's A+ credit rating with a stable outlook, citing the Kingdom's resilient non-oil growth, strategic energy infrastructure, and prudent fiscal management of Vision 2030 projects despite regional geopolitical tensions.
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Why It Matters
Saudi Arabia is undergoing a long-term economic transformation known as Vision 2030 to reduce reliance on oil. The country faces regional security challenges that impact energy logistics.
RIYADH — Credit rating agency S&P Global affirmed Saudi Arabia's credit rating at A+ with a stable outlook, according to its latest report.
“The stable outlook reflects its view that Saudi Arabia will be able to withstand pressures stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. This takes into account the Kingdom's diversified energy export infrastructure, including its ability to redirect crude oil exports to the Red Sea through the East-West oil pipeline, as well as its substantial oil storage and refining capacity both domestically and abroad,” the report pointed out.
The agency also noted that the stable outlook reflects continued non-oil growth momentum and associated non-oil revenue, together with the government's ability to calibrate investment expenditure linked to Saudi Vision 2030, which should continue to support the economy and fiscal trajectory. Despite the conflict, non-oil activity has remained reasonably resilient, supported by consumer spending.
S&P expects real GDP to contract by 0.9 percent in 2026 before rebounding sharply by 8.2 percent in 2027, supported by an increase in oil production, and to average 3.3 percent in 2028-2029. The non-oil sector, including government activities, now accounts for about 70 percent of GDP, up from 65 percent in 2018, reflecting continued structural progress in economic diversification.
The agency further highlighted Saudi Arabia's substantial net general government asset position as a key strength and noted that foreign-exchange reserves reached their highest level since early 2020.
S&P Global stated that the ongoing recalibration of Saudi Vision 2030 project implementation should support fiscal resilience. It also expects the Kingdom to continue adopting a prudent and flexible approach in this regard, having stressed its commitment to achieving Saudi Vision 2030 goals without jeopardizing public finances. The agency noted that ongoing structural reforms will remain important in supporting non-oil growth.
Open Questions
- How will the 2026 GDP contraction impact specific Vision 2030 projects?
