Saudi Arabia forecasts above-average rainfall through November, temperatures up to 3°C higher

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia is expected to experience above-average rainfall across most regions in October and November, while temperatures are forecast to remain higher than normal nationwide through December, according to the National Center for Meteorology (NCM).

The NCM said its climate outlook for October to December 2026 indicates above-normal rainfall across most of the Kingdom in October and much of the country in November, before rainfall returns to around normal levels across most regions in December.

In October, above-average rainfall is forecast across most regions of Saudi Arabia and along the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf coasts, with a probability of up to 80%.

Rainfall is expected to range from moderate to heavy and could become very heavy in Tabuk, Madinah, Al-Baha, Asir, Al-Jouf, Hail, Qassim, the Northern Borders and Riyadh, excluding southern parts of the region, as well as western Najran.

The NCM said rainfall could become extremely heavy in Makkah, Jazan and the Eastern Province, excluding the southern part of the Eastern Province.

In November, the probability of above-average rainfall across most of the Kingdom reaches 75%, with precipitation potentially ranging from heavy to very heavy.

The forecast covers Makkah, Riyadh, Al-Baha, Asir, Jazan, Al-Jouf, the Northern Borders, Tabuk and the Eastern Province, as well as most of Qassim and Hail and northern and southern parts of Madinah.

By December, rainfall is expected to be around normal levels across most of Saudi Arabia.

Parts of the Eastern Province and Makkah could still experience above-average rainfall, with probabilities ranging between 40% and 50% and rainfall potentially reaching heavy to very heavy levels.

The NCM forecast above-average surface temperatures across all regions of the Kingdom throughout October, November and December.

The largest increases are expected across parts of southeastern Makkah, eastern Al-Baha, most of Asir, northeastern Jazan, most of Najran, southern and southwestern parts of the Eastern Province, and southern Riyadh.

Temperatures could average as much as 3°C above normal in October, before the increase gradually eases to 2.5°C in November and 1.5°C in December.