In the torpor of summer and its scorching temperatures, this government figure slowly descends the steps of his ministry. With her hand on the railing, she stops, as if feeling slightly dizzy thinking about the budgetary marathon that is looming at the start of the school year. “I don’t see how we are saved,” she sighs. “It’s going to be a difficult budget and the socialists are not motivated to help us.” Last year, Sébastien Lecornu, newly appointed to Matignon after many twists and turns, managed to have his budget adopted in January. He had established a non-censorship pact with the PS by accepting the suspension of the pension reform.
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Will the scenario be the same for the two financial texts of 2027 – the finance bill (PLF) and that of the financing of Social Security (PLFSS) – officially presented to the Council of Ministers, Thursday October 1? The conditions are not similar, even if the absence of an absolute majority remains in the Assembly. "Last year, it was not our copy [but the one initially presented by François Bayrou before he lost the confidence of the Assembly], it was extremely difficult. There was a political crisis of no proportion, with calls for the resignation of the president which emanated even from the ranks of the central bloc, a resignation of the Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, etc. Sébastien Lecornu was alone in his boat", observes an advisor to the executive. In one year, the former Minister of the Armed Forces acquired "experience of budgetary examination" while "the conditions for discussion are set with each other".
From the summer, he began to send signals to various politicians and instructed his ministers to launch consultations in a financial context which had deteriorated considerably. But parliamentary arithmetic is implacable and Sébastien Lecornu will have no other choice than to resort, at one point, to the two constitutional tools at his discretion: 49.3, which allows a text to be adopted without a vote, or the ordinance, which offers the possibility to the government, if Parliament has not decided within seventy days, to implement the initial text. The tenant of Matignon will also have to take into account the presidential campaign which will take shape in the background and will disrupt the strategies of the different camps.
“Everything will depend on the copy”
From August 22, Sébastien Lecornu chose to rely on the proximity of the budget examination to the supreme election to send a message to parliamentarians in a letter he sent them. The adoption of a budget is necessary because "a special law [which ensures the continuity of the State in the absence of a budget, thanks, in particular, to the lifting of taxes and the renewal of public expenditure voted in 2026] which would apply over several months does not constitute (...) a political solution". But Emmanuel Macron's successor, he writes, will have plenty of time to reconsider the choices made in the fall: "A voted budget can in fact be corrected, reoriented or modified quickly by the next President of the Republic (...). But we cannot modify a budget which has not been adopted." An argument which, in the corridors of political consultations, would hit the mark, according to a source at Bercy: "The dark scenario of a special law which lasts for months, no one wants it and everyone wants to avoid it."
Starting with Marine Le Pen, who expressed it publicly, on September 12, in front of RN parliamentarians gathered in Le Touquet (Pas-de-Calais). “An imperfect budget operational before the elections is preferable this time to a special law,” she says. Will the far-right group, with 122 deputies, choose the path of non-censorship? Very quickly, the party officials tempered. “It is a position of openness, but that does not mean ruling out censorship a priori,” recalls RN deputy Matthias Renault, assuring that they will judge “on documents”. “Everything will depend on the copy,” says someone close to Marine Le Pen.
“We won’t do anything, but we won’t let anything go.”
Someone close to Marine Le Pen
at franceinfo
The central bloc leans more towards non-censorship of Marine Le Pen and her troops. “A political leader who sees herself as a future head of state does not stoop to dismissing a Prime Minister, especially in a year when she needs stability,” a Renaissance executive wants to believe. A left-wing MP, however, warns: "If diesel rises to 3 euros per liter, how could the RN not censor?" Added to the debt crisis and soaring borrowing rates for the government is the brutal rise in fuel prices which is fueling social anger and forcing it to take support measures.
“It’s a waiting budget”
"Basically, Marine Le Pen's declarations have no impact on the budget copy, assures the Prime Minister's entourage. The main decisions have already been made much longer." Above all, Sébastien Lecornu continues his method, according to this source: "There will be no negotiations with the RN. There are discussions with the PS." On September 23, the head of government sent a letter to socialist parliamentarians. “The 2026 compromise was possible because everyone agreed to take a step. I am ready to continue this process with you, with the same frankness and the same desire to succeed,” he wrote to them.
But the government is coming up against a new component at the start of autumn: the left-wing primary, which requires each candidate to play their own part. According to information from franceinfo, the executive does not know if by speaking to a particular socialist personality, she takes the rest of the group with her. Olivier Faure, boss of the PS and candidate in the primary, seems to be taking a hard line. “The suspense is weak, if not non-existent,” he assures, from the PS summer school in Blois (Loir-et-Cher), on August 28. And to announce: “There will be censorship.”
"It's difficult to position ourselves upstream, we remain open to discussion", nuance for her part, on September 16, the leader of the PS on the budget, the deputy Estelle Mercier, during the presentation of the socialist counter-budget. To franceinfo, she evokes “a more tense context, marked by the presidential election and the degraded economic context”. “Everyone says that the justice of the peace will be the presidential election. It’s a waiting budget,” says a socialist parliamentarian.
“The time needed”
Within the government, the 2027 election is not only seen as a negative parameter. “Last year, the presidential election was too far away. Everyone could do anything. The candidates were not caught up with reality,” judges a source within the executive. Like Marine Le Pen, those who believe in their chance of accessing the Elysée will not censor, at least before having secured the budget, so as not to find themselves with a special law in their hands next May, we bet in the corridors of power. “It also protects us from being away from the presidential match and therefore from being a target,” adds an influential minister.
But, in the ranks of supporters of the government, we are a little less optimistic. “The examination of the budget must be shorter than last year because it will be a platform for the presidential election,” sighs a Renaissance deputy.
“The government would benefit from reducing the frequency of debates. I am pleading for a 49.3 very quickly, in the days following the start of the examination in the Assembly.”
A Renaissance MP
at franceinfo
Except that this is not Sébastien Lecornu's intention. The Prime Minister, who announced that he wanted to make 54 billion euros in savings in order to achieve a 5% deficit, intends to complete the budgetary review, like last year. “We will not do anything in haste. We will therefore take the time necessary for the debate,” he assured in his letter to parliamentarians.
But this year, the Prime Minister was careful not to promise not to use 49.3, unlike last year. He was finally forced to draw it. “There will be neither 49.3, nor ordinances, and in the end, there will be a vote!”, he still tried in an interview with Le Figaro. In reality, no one is fooled: a fair vote on the budget is impossible. “We want to give the parliamentary discussion a chance. Afterwards, all options remain open, including the route of ordinances,” summarizes a source in the executive.
With the sword of censorship which will hover throughout the debates and which will make some whisper the word “dissolution” in the corridors of power. “If the government falls, this opens the way to dissolution,” asserts a member of the executive. “The president will have no problem dissolving in the event of censorship and that is why there will be no censorship, particularly from the RN. This would prevent them from dissolving again in the event of victory next May,” assures a Renaissance deputy. The Constitution prohibits, in fact, carrying out a new dissolution during the year following the previous one, but the debate remains open among jurists whether a new President of the Republic has in the meantime acceded to power.
