We are receiving information (...), we are not revealing sources, but there are many of them, that Russia is preparing something big this year, said Deputy Prime Minister and head of Polish diplomacy Radosław Sikorski during a meeting at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York in the presence of Romanian foreign minister Oana Toiu.
According to the minister, the Kremlin may be preparing to carry out a provocation that would serve as a pretext to mobilize society.
We also think that public opinion exists even in dictatorships, and I think Putin needs an excuse to mobilize, so they can launch a false flag attack to tell the Russians: "We are under attack and that's why we need to mobilize," Sikorski added.
Belarus is concerned, Poland is ready
The Deputy Prime Minister drew attention to the growing tension in the region and the concerns of Russia's neighbors. On Wednesday, Sikorski met for the first time with the head of diplomacy of Belarus, Maxim Ryzhenkov. Belarusians are very concerned about being drawn into the war, he admitted.
The minister also pointed to Moscow's strategic goals in the Baltic region. As you know, Russians are the majority in Narva, Estonia. In some cities in Latvia, Russians are also the majority. They would like to have a land bridge from Belarus to the Koenigsberg enclave via Lithuania. We don't know what they will do, but we must prepare to scare them away, Sikorski said.
Full scale war?
According to the head of Polish diplomacy, Russia would be "crazy" if it decided to launch a full-scale invasion of NATO countries. However, as he noted, hybrid actions or provocations are more likely, which would make it difficult to activate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on Mutual Defense.
Sikorski was also asked about Poland's ability to defend itself in the absence of support from the US. He recalled that Poland had already faced Russian aggression. Poland has been fighting Russia since before the creation of the United States and this time it would also fight, he assured.
The deputy prime minister assessed that Moscow's current strategy is to cut off Ukraine from Western support. This explains the increased attacks on border crossings with Poland. These strikes cause concern in Poland because Russian missiles do not always hit their targets, Sikorski admitted.
Despite Russia's economic problems and shrinking reserves, the Kremlin may - according to Sikorski - continue hostilities for another year or two. Unless Ukraine destroys more than half of the refinery's processing capacity, the minister noted.
Sikorski emphasized that Moscow still counts on several advantages. Russia believes it has two more cards to play: mobilization and a harsh winter, as well as the destruction of the Ukrainian energy grid, heating systems and large companies, what is happening and what is destroying the Ukrainian economy, but Ukrainians also have, as President Trump said, cards to play, he said.
Permanent US base in Poland
The Deputy Prime Minister also referred to the issue of the presence of American troops in Poland. Ultimately, the base would accommodate one brigade, and currently about 7,000 soldiers are stationed in Poland on a rotational basis.
So we want a United States presence that would reassure us but would not pose a threat to Russia. And we hope that President Trump will keep the promise he made to our president on this matter, Sikorski said. He added that about 10,000 soldiers would be enough for this purpose.
