Youtrend Simulation: the impact of Futuro Nazionale on the Stabilicum electoral system

"If we were to vote today with the Stabilicum, the outcome would depend on the position of Futuro Nazionale". This is what emerges from the simulation created by Youtrend for Sky TG24, which projects the current voting intentions on the new system by comparing two scenarios: Futuro Nazionale allied with Fratelli d'Italia, Forza Italia, Lega and Noi Moderati, or in an independent race.

"With Futuro Nazionale in the coalition, the center-right would obtain 226 seats in the Chamber out of 400 and 117 in the Senate out of 205, exceeding the absolute majority thresholds (201 and 103 respectively). The broad field, made up of PD, M5S, AVS, Italia Viva and +Europa, would stop at 157 deputies and 74 senators.

If instead Futuro Nazionale ran alone, the result would be reversed: the broad camp would win the majority prize, with 221 deputies and 110 senators, while the center-right would stop at 139 and 69. Vannacci would win 25 seats in Montecitorio and 12 in Palazzo Madama. In both scenarios Action, which in the simulation runs outside the two coalitions, would remain decisive only on paper: 14 deputies and 6 senators in the first case, 12 and 6 in the second - explains Youtrend -. Looking at the individual parties, the comparison with the seats obtained in 2022 with the Rosatellum shows how much FnV's choice weighs. In the Chamber, FdI would rise from 119 to 125 deputies with Futuro Nazionale in the coalition, but would drop to 91 if FnV ran alone. Forza Italia would go from 45 to 35 deputies in the first scenario and to 26 in the second; the League from 66 to 26 and 19. Futuro Nazionale would elect 35 deputies as an ally and 25 alone.

In the broad field, the PD would grow in both cases, from 69 to 79 and to 110 deputies; the M5S would drop from 52 to 45 with FN in the centre-right, but would rise to 62 with FnV out; AVS would go from 12 to 25 and 34. In the Senate the dynamics would be the same. Fratelli d'Italia would go from 66 to 63 senators with FnV allied and to 44 with FnV outside the coalition; Forza Italia from 18 to 19 and 13; the League from 29 to 13 and 10. Futuro Nazionale would obtain 19 senators as an ally and 12 on its own. In the broad field, the PD would go from 40 to 37 senators in the first scenario and to 55 in the second; the M5S from 28 to 21 and 30; AVS from 4 to 12 and 17", it explains.