Is the memory really bad? SK Hynix ADR crashes before market opening, Micron suffers bloodbath

Global memory stocks are under heavy selling pressure! Before the U.S. stock market opened on Thursday (15th), SK Hynix ADR plunged more than 6%, SanDisk plunged more than 5%, and Micron Technology fell more than 4%. Foreign media pointed out that in addition to the market's concerns about China's Changxin storage technology breakthrough, there are also rumors that a global memory oversupply crisis may break out in 2029, putting the AI-driven memory super cycle to the test.

According to reports from CNBC and other foreign media, this wave of selling pressure on memory stocks continues to expand. In the past five trading days, SK Hynix has plummeted 26%, Samsung Electronics has plummeted 22%, and Micron has also fallen by about 11%, becoming the hardest hit area of ​​the recent sell-off in technology stocks.

One of the causes of market panic is Chang Xin Memory, a major Chinese memory manufacturer. The company announced this week that it plans to launch server memory products using a new architecture that can further increase storage density, raising concerns that Chinese companies may rely on technological breakthroughs to seize the global market share of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.

However, some analysts believe the market has overreacted. Ben Barringer, director of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, pointed out that whether the new architecture can be successfully mass-produced is still critical. If the yield rate is only 50%, it means that half of the chips cannot be used normally. Rosenblatt Securities analyst Kevin Cassidy also believes that Changxin Memory’s new technology is unlikely to change the balance of memory supply and demand in the short term.

Another warning came from South Korea’s Mainichi Business News. The newspaper's column quoted industry insiders predicting that in 2029, the memory market may see a large amount of new supply and fall into fierce price competition. By 2030, the super cycle may even end and the industry will re-enter a downturn.

Tesla CEO Musk also posted on the social platform X that China will produce "a lot of RAM" by 2028, further deepening market doubts about production capacity expansion.

Currently, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are all actively expanding production, but it usually takes 3 to 5 years from construction to production of new factories. Therefore, many analysts predict that memory supply may continue to be tight until 2028.

Research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that DRAM prices may fall 23% in 2028 compared with 2027, but will still be approximately 230% higher than in 2025. The agency pointed out that as suppliers and customers sign long-term supply agreements of 3 to 5 years, coupled with advance payment and price upper and lower limit mechanisms, even if the future enters a downward cycle, the decline may not be as severe as in the past.

It is worth noting that oversupply in 2029 is still predicted by some industry insiders and has not yet formed a market consensus. However, intensified competition in China and concerns about memory price reversal have put related stocks under heavy selling pressure.