New Zealand's election has thrown up no clear winner, but its biggest political takeaway is the growing clout of smaller parties, which have made historic gains and could prove crucial to determining the country's next government.
While Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right National Party and the opposition Labour Party have emerged almost neck and neck, neither has secured a decisive mandate. Smaller parties, meanwhile, have strengthened their positions, with the Green Party recording its best-ever election result and the libertarian ACT and nationalist New Zealand First also improving their vote shares.
The Electoral Commission's preliminary projections put the right-leaning bloc, comprising National, ACT and New Zealand First, at 67 seats in an expanded 131-member parliament. The centre-left grouping of Labour, the Greens and indigenous party Te Pāti Māori is projected to hold 57 seats.
The final outcome remains uncertain, with nearly 400,000 special votes still to be counted. The results are due on November 27 and could alter the seat distribution, potentially changing the arithmetic for government formation.
The election has also brought a new player into the political equation. The centrist Opportunity Party is projected to enter parliament for the first time with seven seats, giving it the potential to influence coalition negotiations if the final numbers leave either bloc short of a majority.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has said she would first discuss collaboration with the largest party in parliament. Luxon, who had repeatedly ruled out working with the party before the election, appeared more open to the possibility after the preliminary results.
"As we currently stand today, we don't need Opportunity to form a government," he told reporters on Sunday, according to Bloomberg. "Regardless of what numbers are when the special votes come in, I do think it's entirely appropriate to build a relationship with Qiulae and with Opportunity."
The results underline a broader fragmentation of the electorate, with voters increasingly willing to look beyond established political parties. Bloomberg noted that the trend mirrors developments in other democracies, where dissatisfaction with major parties over living costs and political instability has helped smaller and alternative political movements gain traction.
New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system, introduced in 1996, has made it easier for smaller parties to translate their support into parliamentary representation. Voters cast two ballots — one for their local electorate candidate and another for the political party they want to govern. Parties generally need at least 5% of the party vote or a winning electorate seat to enter parliament.
Less than 1% of votes in the preliminary count went to parties that will not be represented in parliament, compared with nearly 5% in the 2023 election, Bloomberg reported.
The growing influence of smaller parties has added to the uncertainty surrounding government formation. David Farrar, a political commentator and founder of polling firm Curia Market Research, said it was "very unlikely" that Labour could take power, despite the mathematical possibility of a centre-left government.
"Mathematically it's possible Labour could form a government, but it would require a lot to fall their way," Farrar told Bloomberg.
He said the more likely outcomes were a National-led government retaining its majority or a hung parliament in which National would need Opportunity's support to break the deadlock.
The electoral arithmetic has been further complicated by an unusual feature of the MMP system known as an 'overhang', which has pushed the projected size of parliament to 131 members from its usual 120.
National has won 42 electorate seats despite its party vote share entitling it to 36 seats, creating a six-seat overhang. Te Pāti Māori has also won five electorate seats despite receiving less than 1% of the party vote, resulting in a further five-seat overhang.
The preliminary results therefore give National and its allies an advantage, although the remaining votes could still affect the balance.
Labour candidates are trailing by only a few hundred votes in two closely contested electorates, Hamilton East and Wairarapa, according to AFP. A reversal in these races could alter the seat distribution, although AFP reported that the left-led opposition would still face a difficult path to power.
Historically, special votes — including ballots cast overseas and by people voting outside their home electorates — have tended to favour Labour and the Greens, sometimes giving them an additional one or two parliamentary seats.
The final count is expected to determine whether National can govern with its existing allies or whether the Opportunity Party becomes a more consequential player in coalition negotiations.
The current National-led coalition of National, ACT and New Zealand First has governed since 2023 and has indicated its willingness to work together again. However, the final result could force it to seek additional support.
With coalition negotiations unlikely to begin in earnest until the final results are declared on November 27, New Zealand faces several more weeks of political uncertainty.
