According to a study, Germany's population will decline moderately by 2045, from the current 83.3 million to 81.8 million. This is shown by the study “Demographic Situation of the Nation” presented by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development. A good two thirds of the 400 districts and independent cities in Germany must therefore expect a decline in population. 184 regions that were growing just a few years ago are also likely to shrink. According to the Federal Statistical Office, around 83.3 million people will live in Germany in 2026.
The crucial question is not whether Germany is growing or shrinking, but where, said Catherina Hinz, director of the Berlin Institute. There are clear regional differences: regions that are economically strong, have high incomes and therefore attract a lot of people, and parts of the country that are struggling with a weak economy and a lot of emigration. Some regions would have to create housing and infrastructure for more people, others would have to provide public services for fewer residents with fewer workers, says Catherina Hinz, director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development.
Many large cities are likely to continue to grow in the future, while some rural regions will lose significant population, says Manuel Slupina from the Wüstenrot Foundation. For Leipzig, Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt am Main, Munich, Nuremberg, Düsseldorf, Potsdam and Dresden, for example, significant population growth is forecast. Essen, Dortmund and Stuttgart, on the other hand, must expect a decline in population by 2045.
However, the classic differences between cities and rural areas do not exist across the board, according to the authors. The surrounding areas of numerous large cities are also expected to grow. While young people tend to move to metropolises, families with children tend to move to the surrounding areas. At the bottom of the ranking are many sparsely populated areas, such as the Elbe-Elster district in Brandenburg or Lüchow-Dannenberg in Lower Saxony and the Kyffhäuser district in Thuringia. But rural does not automatically mean weak - and urban does not automatically mean strong, the authors emphasize. The last 100 regions also include major cities such as Bremen, Duisburg, Lübeck, Salzgitter and Kaiserslautern.
Big differences in the East
According to the study, regions in the east in particular are developing more and more differently: 12 of the 20 districts and independent cities with the weakest overall ratings are in eastern Germany - in 2019 there were still 5.
According to the study, the biggest winner and the biggest loser in population development are both in the east: The Brandenburg district of Dahme-Spreewald can expect the strongest growth with an increase of 17 percent by 2045, while the city of Suhl and the Sonneberg district in Thuringia can each expect a minus of 30 percent.
There are also big differences in the West. Saarland, for example, is likely to continue to lose population, and southern Lower Saxony and South Westphalia also have rather bleak demographic prospects. However, many districts in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria are likely to grow.
Clear north-south divide
A familiar pattern continues to emerge: a clear north-south divide. Among the federal states, Bavaria is increasingly clearing itself at the top: 18 of the 20 best-placed districts and independent cities are in Bavaria. In 2019 there were 12, said Adrián Carrasco Heiermann from the Berlin Institute. The prospects are also good in many places in Baden-Württemberg.
In Bavaria, several favorable factors come together: On the one hand, the economy is doing well in many districts, and on the other hand, a comparatively large number of women and people without a German passport and also older people who are close to retirement age are employed and are subject to social security contributions. The ranking shows that economically successful regions integrate different population groups better into the labor market. Weaker regions often have in common that they do worse when it comes to employing women and people without a German passport.
In addition to the pure population size, the age structure also affects the regions. One factor is the approaching retirement of many baby boomers. According to forecasts, the working-age population nationwide will shrink by 4.7 percent by 2045. In Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saarland the decline is even 12 to 18 percent. Only Berlin, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Bremen still expect increases at the state level.
Participation in the labor market is therefore becoming a location factor and competition for workers is becoming a central demographic challenge, according to the authors of the study.
