SportsLine Model Backs Underdog in Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks Amid Risky Favorites

Week 1 of the NFL season begins in just four days, and bring arguably the most challenging slate for NFL survivor picks since there's no in-season date to analyze. There are also several divisional matchups between rivals, including 49ers vs. Rams (-3.5), Packers vs. Vikings (-1.5), Commanders vs. Eagles (-5.5), Cowboys vs. Giants (+2.5) on Sunday night and Broncos vs. Chiefs (-2.5) on Monday night. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $200 in bonus bets as a new user after $5+ in wagers here:

Meanwhile no game has a larger NFL spread to consider for Week 1 NFL knockout picks than Cardinals vs. Chargers (-10.5). Is that the game to target in Week 1 NFL survivor picks, or should you save the Chargers for another week? Before making any Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks or NFL knockout pool picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 1 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

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Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the Dallas Cowboys (-2.5), even though they are -155 favorites on the money line against the Giants at the best betting apps. The New York Giants went 4-13 last season and have since hired a new coaching staff, led by former Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh. Quarterback Jaxson Dart will look to build on a season in which he threw for 2,272 yards and 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in 14 games played, and he could have star receiver Malik Nabers back from a knee injury in Week 1, though his status is not confirmed yet.

Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott enters his 11th season and is coming off a season in which he threw for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. The Cowboys were on track to make the postseason before losing four of their last five games in 2025. They are also just 2-4 over their last six Week 1 games. The model projects that the Giants win in 47% of simulations, making the Cowboys an extremely risky selection in what the computer projects to be a 1-point game. See which team to pick instead here.

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How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in well over 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.