
The increase is driven by increases in energy, fuel and food prices expected for the next quarter
Codacons expects an increase of 633 euros per family in the autumn quarter due to increases in energy, fuel and food prices, influenced by the current geopolitical instability.
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The analysis is based on current energy market data compared to the autumn quarter of 2025.
The autumn blow hits the pockets of Italians: the estimate is a growth of 633 euros per family, according to Codacons, which has carried out an analysis of the increased expenses that await families on their return from summer holidays and in the next quarter, in light of the current geopolitical situation.
"The item that will have the most direct and indirect impact on consumers' pockets is that relating to energy - explains Codacons.
The monitored electricity price has in fact gone from 112 euros per MWh on average in the September/October/November 2025 quarter to the current 180 euros per MWh, with a jump of 60.7%. Things are even worse for gas, with the PSV index rising from 0.358 euros to the SMC in the autumn quarter of 2025 to around 0.750 euros to the SMC in August, with an increase of 109%".
"If energy prices remain at current levels, the expenditure of an average family for electricity and gas bills could rise by a total of 205 euros between September and November", estimates the association, adding a further sore point, that relating to fuels: "if retail prices were to remain at current levels, we read in the survey, the increased expenditure just for supplies to distributors in the quarter considered (in the hypothesis of two tanks per month) would be 145 euros on the same period of 2025 in the case of a diesel-powered car, and 93 euros for a petrol-powered car".
Tensions on the energy and fuel markets will cause retail prices to rise in a multitude of sectors, starting with food: in the hypothesis of an increase in food and drink prices of 3% in the September-November period, a family would find themselves spending around 70 euros more just to eat. Repercussions also on the transport front, a sector which is particularly affected by the delicate international situation, a sector where the highest expenditure should amount to 68 euros per family in the next quarter.

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