V's demands for ministerial posts seem to be written in stone - unlike those of the Sweden Democrats. SD was able to back down and appear constructive because the party had never made a congressional decision on demands for ministers - but also because of the party culture.
Jimmie Åkesson has significantly freer reins than Nooshi Dadgostar, who leads a party where the party leadership has much less leeway than in other parties.
But even V can violate its congressional decision. Either by calling for an extraordinary congress, which is difficult to achieve at short notice, or by trying to anchor a change in some other way – in the party board, in the parliamentary group or by calling in all the district chairmen.
The Liberals' Simona Mohamsson worked a bit like that when she called for an extra digital national meeting to change the decision from the party's extra congress last spring, when they chose to continue the Tidö collaboration, but said no to SD getting ministerial posts.
V itself had an extra congress in 2022 when it changed its mind on the issue of Swedish arms exports.
- Historically, it has happened several times. In some cases, the party board only makes a new decision. In other cases, extra congresses have been called to untie knots that have arisen, says Niklas Bolin.
In this case, however, the party culture in V can be of great importance. It is more collectivist and gives the party leadership less freedom than in other parties, several political scientists have pointed out.
- After all, it is long-term important for V to get ministerial posts. Their desire to break with the role of support party, to enter the government, it is genuine. Once you have entered, the probability that you will be welcomed into the government is much greater in the future as well, says Niklas Bolin.
Does that mean there is no possibility at all for V to back out of the demand for ministerial posts?
- It is incredibly difficult to know. I did not experience vice chair Ida Gabrielsson as quite as steadfast when she was questioned in Aktuellt on Monday evening. However, I imagine that outwardly you will continue to be rock hard, right up until the day you can't do it anymore. They will definitely wait until C has shown his cards, that is my speculation, says Niklas Bolin.
Then there is also, of course, a matter of trust. If the party leadership chooses to run over the congress decision without it being anchored, it must be able to show that it has chosen the best path - not only in terms of which prime minister governs, but also for the party.
Shouldn't SD's current position, where they say they want to release a prime minister and then go into opposition and vote as they want, be enviable even for V in purely political terms?
- You can certainly imagine that. After all, no one is arguing that SD has had substantive political successes. The problem here is V's long-term ambition to sit in the government and escape the role of support party. SD also has that ambition, of course, but they let Jimmie Åkesson direct the way forward.
There is another reason for V to stand firm on its demand, notes Niklas Bolin.
- If Ulf Kristersson is proposed by the Speaker and approved by the Riksdag, V can leave the process with his honor intact, without having to compromise his claim against C.
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