Rising prices for gasoline, heating oil, gas - how expensive will winter be?

Commuter Daria Schulz now spends around 400 euros a month on gas. She can hardly afford the 130 kilometers to the office anymore. “This is of course an expense item that I can’t just put away,” says Schulz.

The price of premium gasoline has risen by around 30 percent within a year, and the price of diesel by around 45 percent. Compared to the EU, the price of fuel in Germany remains high despite the fuel discount, mainly because of taxes and duties. Even the release of the strategic reserves can only provide temporary relief for drivers.

Little planning for entrepreneurs

The entrepreneur Daniel Constant from near Schweinfurt also doesn't know how he's going to manage the energy costs. He runs an international freight forwarding company with 22 vehicles. Compared to 2020, he says he has an additional cost of one million euros a year just for fuel.

Medium-sized businesses like him are currently really struggling with fuel and energy prices, says Konsistent.

The Federal Association of Logistics & Transport warns of a collapse in the industry. Liquidity is decreasing, investments are being postponed and vehicle fleets are being reduced.

High fuel costs make food prices more expensive

Constantly transports mostly food. For fixed orders, he can pass on the fuel costs to the customer. They in turn pass this on to their customers - the consumers. It's a spiral, says Constant.

“In the end - we see this in the supermarkets, especially in the food sector - we have already gone up significantly in prices compared to the last few years,” says the entrepreneur.

In September alone, energy prices rose by 14.9 percent compared to the same month last year. This has led to the inflation rate now being 3.3 percent.

A fuel price cap is planned from January, i.e. a maximum price set by the state. Economists warn of undesirable consequences. “If I cap a price in an otherwise free market, I have two effects,” explains Andrej Putisek from the Stuttgart University of Technology. "Increasing demand and decreasing supply. With fuel price caps, I fear that there will be a shortage."

Heating oil shock: full tanks, empty accounts

The price of heating oil has risen by around 80 percent within a year. At the fuel trader Dieter Dlask from Bergkirchen, orders fell drastically due to the price explosion: "We have seen drops in sales of up to 60 percent. And our margins - in contrast to those of the oil companies - are consistent and very thin."

3,000 liters of heating oil currently costs around 5,000 euros. Many households haven't even filled their tanks just before winter because of the high prices - or are deliberately ordering smaller quantities than before.

When the heating season begins and the release of the strategic reserves should lead to a short-term price reduction, orders may become tight, warns Dlask: "It can build up when it gets cold and people come all at once, then there will be waiting times."

Gas storage unusually empty

The wholesale price of gas has risen by almost 128 percent within a year. Business at the Hamburg chemical factory HOBUM Oleochemicals is going well, but the machines need gas. Managing director Arnold Mergell has secured the family business with long-term supply contracts. By 2029, he will buy gas at a significantly cheaper price.

But the entrepreneur is worried: the filling level of German gas storage facilities is lower than ever at the beginning of October. The fear: Germany could run out of gas this winter.

Customizing is expensive

If Mergell had to switch from gas to heating oil, it would be expensive for him. Because then he would have to buy heating oil at the current market price. “German industrial companies will be at a competitive disadvantage, at least when it comes to the prices expected in winter,” criticizes Mergell.

End consumer prices have increased by around 40 percent within a year. If gas becomes a scarce commodity, Germany could face an expensive winter.