Svimez, the south grows even more than the central-north but slows down in 2027

In 2026 the South should continue to grow, albeit slightly, more than the Centre-North, with a GDP increase of 0.9%, against 0.8%.

In 2027 this trend should tend to disappear: southern growth would slow down to 0.5%, compared to 0.6% in the Centre-North.

This is what emerges from the Svimez Report 'The economy and society of the South'.

What matters above all is the progressive exhaustion of the extraordinary impulse of the Pnrr.

Investments, which are expected to grow by another 6% in the South in 2026, would slow down sharply to 0.8% in 2027, compared to 1.8% in the Centre-North.

Added to this are the effects of the new inflationary pressure on incomes and consumption.

Svimez estimates a 0.1% decrease in the real disposable income of southern families in 2027 (+0.6% forecast for the Centre-North).

Then there is Italy which emigrates: young people from the North who go abroad, those from the South towards the North and abroad.

In the five-year period 2021-2025, the South lost around 154 thousand young people aged 25-34 in exchanges with the Centre-North; in the last three years the Centre-North has also recorded a negative net balance with foreign countries of over 36 thousand graduates under 35.

The overall migration balance of the band, the report also indicates, remains negative for around 84 thousand people.

The emigration of graduate women is also growing: 16 thousand from the south to the north and 10 thousand from the north to abroad.