The progress of the South risks stopping with the end of the Pnrr. According to the Svimez 2026 Report, presented today in the Chamber on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the foundation of the association, in the presence of the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella, this year the South will grow a little more than the rest of the country, +0.9% against +0.8%. In 2027, however, the trend will reverse: the southern GDP will slow down to 0.5%, compared to 0.6% in the Centre-North. The loss of the thrust of the Plan will weigh heavily. In the South, investments will grow again by 6% in 2026, before slowing down to 0.8% the following year (1.8% in the Centre-North). With the new surge in prices, the real disposable income of southern families would fall by 0.1% in 2027, while in the Centre-North it would rise by 0.6%.
Between 2021 and 2025, the Report highlights, the GDP of the South grew by 9.5%, compared to 6.6% in the Centre-North and 7.2% of the national average. The growth was driven by investments (+24.4% against +17.1%), with construction at +33.2% and industry in the strict sense at +7.8%, compared to just 0.9% in the Centre-North. Without the Pnrr, Svimez estimates, southern GDP in 2026 would be 2.6% lower. Consumption, however, lagged behind: +7.6% in the South versus +9.9% in the rest of the country. Compared to 2021, the South has 643 thousand more employed people, but only 70 thousand are under 35 years old.
Real hourly wages fell by 9.9% until the first half of 2026, compared to the 7.2% Italian average and 0.6% in the euro area. In the South, 23.3% of employees earn less than 9 euros gross per hour, and around 1.2 million workers live in families at risk of poverty. The energy shock worsens the picture: in October inflation was 6.3% in the South and 5.8% in the Centre-North, and rose to 6.9% for the poorest families. Meanwhile, the hemorrhage of human capital continues: in five years the South has lost 154 thousand young people between the ages of 25 and 34 to the Centre-North, and over half of them are graduates.
Encouraging signs are arriving from Zes Unica. In 2025 the tax credit collected over 10 thousand communications, for 7.3 billion in investments and 3.6 billion in credits requested. The single authorizations are worth 4.2 billion: almost a billion goes to cleantech, with 36 projects worth 27.5 million on average, while electronics-ICT and automotive receive around 470 million each. Almost six out of ten euros go to advanced supply chains. This is also why Svimez asks not to extend the SEZ to other territories and to make the tax credit selective, rewarding strategic supply chains.
The central issue remains energy. In 2026, wholesale electricity costs 154 euros per megawatt hour in Italy: 35% more than in Germany, 71% more than in France and 85% more than in Spain. Southern Italy receives 87.5% of advanced connection requests for new renewable plants. At the same gas price, developing this potential together with storage systems could reduce wholesale prices by 40% in the South and 34% in the Centre-North.
