
AI-generated summary
The interview comes from a conversation with the Ukrinform agency, in which the head of HUR Kyrylo Budanov discussed Russian provocative actions against NATO, the situation in Belarus and Ukraine's ability to conduct attacks deep inside Russia. The context is the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which began in February 2022, and the growing tensions between Russia and NATO countries, especially in the context of support for Kiev.
In an interview with the Ukrinform agency, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR) said that Moscow is planning further provocations aimed at NATO's eastern flank.
According to Ivashchenko, their aim is to show the Alliance's alleged unpreparedness for an open conflict, as well as to put pressure on countries supporting Kiev.
The general pointed to the case of the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile, which was in Poland on July 30.
"From the beginning of the flight, the trajectory of the missile was different from the group of missiles fired on the territory of Ukraine, which proves the deliberate nature of these actions," Ivashchenko said.
He added that Ukrainian intelligence has materials that, as he noted, confirm Russia's aggressive intentions towards Europe.
After the fall of a Russian missile in Tarnawa-Kolonia (Lublin Voivodeship), representatives of the Polish government signaled that there were no signs that the missile was directed there intentionally.
Russian Oreshnik systems in Belarus
The head of HUR also commented on the situation in Belarus. He assessed that the immediate risk of Minsk joining the war remains low. However, he drew attention to the presence of Russian units of the 101st Missile Brigade, equipped with Oreshnik missile systems.
"We are concerned that Belarus has received permission to place radio signal transmitters on its territory that direct Russian Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles to Ukrainian civilian facilities and critical infrastructure," he said.
Oreshnik is a medium or intermediate-range ballistic missile. Theoretically, it can carry nuclear warheads - six in total, capable of independently targeting different targets. Russia and Belarus have repeatedly informed about the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.
"Russia has reserves for the coming years"
Ivashchenko assessed that Russia is economically weaker than at the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022. He pointed out, among others: to the huge budget deficit and shortage of employees in key sectors.
At the same time, he emphasized that Moscow still had the means to continue the war.
"Russia still has sufficient reserves to wage war against Ukraine. We do not rule out that these resources will be sufficient for both 2027 and 2028," noted the head of HUR.
He called for further tightening of Western sanctions, especially limiting the supply of electronic components that may go to the Russian arms industry.
Ukraine declares the ability to attack deep inside Russia
The general also talked about the capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces. According to him, Ukraine is currently capable of precisely striking military and economic targets on Russian territory at a distance exceeding 2,000. kilometers.
He assessed that these attacks force Russia to reorganize its logistics and disperse air defense systems. For months, Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries, weapons plants and fuel bases with long-range drones in an attempt to weaken the military potential and sources of financing of the Russian army.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Russia will continue provocations against NATO's eastern flank in order to test the unity and readiness of the Alliance
Likely · Within months
Ukraine will increase the frequency and range of long-range drone attacks on military and economic targets in Russia
Likely · Within months

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