Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction, odds, time: Week 6 college football picks from proven model

The Red River Rivalry returns when No. 1 Texas meets Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas for one of college football's most storied matchups. The Longhorns (4-0) enter as the nation's top-ranked team, with Arch Manning leading one of the most efficient offenses in the country through four games. Oklahoma (2-2) has struggled to find its footing in 2026, losing to Michigan and Georgia. Texas opens as a 7.5-point favorite at the Cotton Bowl, where the two programs have produced some of the most memorable moments in college football history.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. OU has not scored a touchdown in either of the last two matchups, both of which were defeats. The Longhorns are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Texas vs. Oklahoma odds, while the over/under is 40.5 points. Before making any Oklahoma vs. Texas picks, check out the Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

After simulating Texas vs. Oklahoma 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 40.5 points at betting apps. The total has dropped significantly from its opening number, but the model still projects the offenses to combine for enough points to clear the current line. Despite Oklahoma's 2-2 record, the Sooners have shown the ability to move the ball with John Mateer under center, and even in a game Texas is expected to control, the model projects enough production to push the total past 39.5.

Manning has been the engine of the No. 1 Longhorns' offense in 2026, guiding Texas to a perfect 4-0 start and establishing himself as one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in college football. His ability to extend plays and hit chunk gains down the field has kept opposing defenses off balance all season. Mateer opened 2026 with three passing touchdowns in a 51-0 blowout of UTEP.

SportsLine's model is projecting 42 combined points in this one, making the Over the value 57% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas vs. Oklahoma, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 40-35 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.