Toledo vs. Sacramento State prediction, odds, time: Week 10 MACtion picks from proven model

Teams looking to continue their winning ways clash when the Toledo Rockets battle the Sacramento State Hornets in a key Mid-American Conference matchup Wednesday night on CBS Sports Network. Toledo is coming off a 45-38 win over Western Michigan on Oct. 24, while Sacramento State downed Kent State 31-10 on Friday. The Rockets (6-2, 3-1 MAC), who are tied with two other teams for third in the league, are 2-1 on the road. The Hornets (2-7, 1-5), who are 12th in the MAC, are 2-3 on their home field in 2026.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, Calif. The Rockets are 25-point favorites, with the over/under at 52.5 in the latest Toledo vs. Sacramento State odds. Before making any Toledo vs. Sacramento State picks, check out the Toledo vs. Sacramento State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

After simulating Toledo vs. Sacramento State 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Under 52.5 points at betting apps and the best college football betting sites. The Under has hit in two of the last three Toledo games. It is 6-3 in the past nine Sacramento State matchups. The Hornets are averaging 17 points per game, 12th in the MAC.

The model projects that Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter will throw for more than 260 yards and two touchdowns. He has thrown for 2,244 yards and 17 touchdowns on the season. Sacramento State running back Isaiah Ene is expected to rush for more than 50 yards and one touchdown. Ene has carried 77 times for 410 yards (5.3 average) and three touchdowns on the season.

The computer is calling for 52 combined points as the Under is the value side 53% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

In addition to going Under on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 70% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Toledo vs. Sacramento State, and which side of the spread hits well over 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 80-77 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.