Ball State vs. UMass prediction, odds, time: Week 10 MACtion picks from proven model

The Massachusetts Minutemen will look to snap a four-game skid when they take on the visiting Ball State Cardinals in a key Mid-American Conference matchup on Wednesday night. Ball State is coming off a 34-17 win over Sacramento State on Oct. 24, while UMass dropped a 35-16 decision at Connecticut on Oct. 23. The Cardinals (3-5, 2-2 MAC), who are seventh in the conference, are 1-4 on the road this season. The Minutemen (4-4, 1-3 MAC), who are tied for 10th in the MAC, are 2-2 on their home field in 2026.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Hadley, Mass. The Minutemen are 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 48.5 in the latest Ball State vs. UMass odds. Before making any Ball State vs. UMass picks, check out the Ball State vs. UMass predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

Ball State vs. Massachusetts odds

Top Ball State vs. UMass predictions

After simulating Ball State vs. UMass 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 48.5 points at betting apps and the best college football betting sites. The Over has hit in eight of the last 10 Ball State games. Both teams have proven they can put up points this season. Massachusetts is fourth in the MAC in points scored at 26.5, while Ball State is seventh. The Cardinals, however, have a hard time stopping foes, allowing a league-worst 35.3 points per game.

The model projects that Ball State quarterback Keldric Luster will throw for more than 200 yards and one touchdown. He has thrown for 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. UMass quarterback William Watson III is projected to throw for over 225 yards and two scores. He has thrown for 1,025 yards and eight touchdowns on the year.

The computer is calling for 52 combined points as the Over is the value side 57% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

How to make UMass vs. Ball State picks

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Ball State vs. UMass, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 80-77 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.

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