Toledo vs. UMass prediction, odds, time: Week 11 MACtion picks from proven model

The Toledo Rockets will look to win their fourth game in a row when they take on the Massachusetts Minutemen in a key Mid-American Conference matchup Wednesday night on CBS Sports Network. UMass is coming off a 31-30 overtime victory over Ball State in Week 10, while Toledo downed Sacramento State 20-17. The Minutemen (5-4, 2-3 MAC), who are tied for seventh in the conference, are 2-2 on the road this season. The Rockets (7-2, 4-1), who are tied for second in the league, are 4-1 on their home field in 2026.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. Toledo leads the all-time series 8-1, including a 38-23 win in 2024. The Rockets are 14.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 51.5 in the latest UMass vs. Toledo odds. Before making any UMass vs. Toledo picks, check out the Massachusetts vs. Toledo predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

After simulating UMass vs. Toledo 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 52.5 points at betting apps and the best college football betting sites. The Over has hit in five of the last six head-to-head matchups. It has also hit in seven of the past 10 Rockets games. Both teams can score. Toledo leads the MAC in scoring at 35.4 points per game, while Massachusetts is fourth at 27 points.

The model projects that UMass quarterback William Watson III will throw for more than 210 yards and one touchdown. He has thrown for 1,327 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter, meanwhile, is projected to throw for over 230 yards and two scores. He has thrown for 2,304 yards and 18 touchdowns this season.

The computer is calling for 55 combined points as the Over is the value side 58% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.