axis of lame ducks

“The geopolitical landscape has changed,” says former British intelligence (MI6) diplomat and Middle East expert Alastair Crooke in summary and adds:

"Both Donald Trump and Netanyahu (in the elections held a week apart in the USA and Israel) came out with a heavy blow. They are both very weak, both politically and physically. They both turned the ballot box into a referendum for themselves. Netanyahu was not defeated, but he was badly injured. People feel this. They see that Netanyahu, who recently had a battery in his heart, is in decline. If Trump is weak, Netanyahu is even weaker than him. That is why he needs 'war'. That is why he calls Trump every day and puts pressure on Iran to bomb Iran again."

They call this the “symbiotic axis of two lame ducks.”

Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog, who will announce the candidate to form the government for the first time after the October 27 Israeli elections, is therefore under intense siege from Trump.

The US is openly pressuring President Herzog to grant Netanyahu an amnesty for his cases and to hand over the post of prime minister back to Netanyahu instead of Gadi Ayzenkot, who heads the opposition front that has a majority with Arab parties.

They don't call Netanyahu "Satanyahu" for nothing.

In order not to leave his seat, which is stuck with glue, he will obviously use every weapon he can - including the legend that "the Arabs stole the chest".

The biggest question mark is whether the "two lame ducks", who see democratic institutions, the ballot box, the rule of law and the separation of powers as optional, will start a war in Iran again, hand in hand.

ISRAEL IS PREPARING FOR WAR

Tamir Hayman, who was the head of Israeli military intelligence between 2018 and 2021 and runs the Tel Aviv-based think tank called the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), says, "Israel is preparing for war":

"This is the general atmosphere in Israel. However, all the cards are in Trump's hands regarding Iran. While the US president is talking about a potential agreement, he is also talking about a final blow that will end the war. It is impossible to predict Trump. On the other hand, Netanyahu does not let go of this issue. The 'Iran war' is Netanyahu's signature strategy. In the final analysis, there is a pendulum that oscillates between war and agreement, and this pendulum changes hourly."

Successive elections in two countries that determine geopolitics have never created such great uncertainty. At least I don't remember such a foggy environment in my lifetime. There's dust and smoke all around.

It is necessary to wait until January 2027 for Democrats to actually fill their seats as a majority in Congress.

Netanyahu wants to use this two-month period of uncertainty as a window of opportunity to create fait accompli.

According to experienced former intelligence officers such as Tamar Hayman and Alistair Crooke, "war" is a high possibility. The only alternative that could reverse this situation is to give the task of forming a government in Israel to former chief of staff Gadi Ayzenkot, who also ensures the support of Arab parties, instead of a common national front.

Ayzenkot, who is said to be in the line of founding Prime Minister Ben Gurion, is described as a personality with a slightly more "state mind" identity than Netanyahu, who handed Israel over to the far right.

Although Trump's midterm election defeat increased Ayzenkot's chances, the "Arab-backed government" paradigm; This conjuncture requires a huge leap in mentality. That's why experts like Hayman view a possible "Ayzenkot government" as a "last option."

On the other hand, Ayzenkot says that he is "the only prime ministerial candidate who will repair Israel-US relations", which surfaced in the US elections and appeared to have suffered heavy damage in the eyes of American voters. After the US midterm elections, he bases his political PR and plans on this.

For all these reasons, the decision of Israeli President Herzog to whom he will give the task of forming the government contains various layered messages.

SPECIAL PEN NAMED 'NAZI'

When we look at Trump across the ocean, the first changes in the White House show that the president is extremely ambitious and "angry" rather than "lame".

Trump, who was expected to blame the election defeat on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, contrary to expectations, stood behind the minister, a former Fox journalist.

He went instead and fired his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, who was known as "the only sane person" in the White House. It's not over.

He replaced Wiles with Stephen Miller, a pro-war Israel supporter who was completely in the orbit of the Jewish lobby.

Known as one of the most right-wing and radical members of the Trump team, Miller is the architect of the most horrific racist policies in Trump's first term, such as the separation of immigrant children from their families at the border and the Muslim immigration ban.

He was the strategist of ICE operations, which were also implemented in the second term.

For these reasons, the new chief of staff of the president, who has been referred to as "Nazi", is now making plans for Trump to rule the country through presidential decrees, completely bypassing Congress.

Turbulence is great. Fasten your seat belts.