Trump administration faces criticism over Belarus potash deal amid pressure on India

Critics are calling out the Trump administration for hypocrisy and double standards after MAGA supremo Donald Trump announced a potash (fertiliser) deal on Monday with Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, days after he signed a bill which would punish India if it buys Russian energy.

Arising from his spat with Canada, which supplies 85 per cent of US-needed potash, a key farming input, Trump announced with his customary fanfare that Washington is working on a “massive Deal” to purchase potash from Belarus at prices “substantially less” than what Washington currently pays Ottawa, calling it good news for American farmers. The move will affect New Delhi because Belarus is also an established supplier of potash to the Indian agricultural market. The apparent double standard is already drawing flak in diplomatic circles.

Evan Feigenbaum, a former administration official and a South Asia analyst, has pointed to the contradiction between Washington’s pressure on India over Russian energy and Trump’s willingness to pursue Belarusian potash and said the appearance of “double standards and apparent hypocrisy” can affect perceptions of the US as a negotiating partner. But as has become normal with many announcements by the MAGA boss, he appears to have jumped the gun on the issue – if he's not posturing – because Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said there was little or no spare potash available for western markets and his country’s production was already contracted. “Even if we wanted to supply other markets we simply don’t have the volume,” Lukashenko said, according to reports from Minsk.

Potash is not quite oil or gas, but in agriculture it has a comparable strategic character. Potassium is one of the three major plant nutrients, alongside nitrogen and phosphorus. It helps regulate water uptake, photosynthesis and enzyme activity and improves crop quality, disease resistance and yields. And the global concentration is striking. Canada, Russia and Belarus are the dominant players in the international potash market. Canada alone accounts for about one-third of global supply and is by far the principal supplier to the US

Trump's gambit therefore amounts to using a trade war with one major supplier to seek leverage through another supplier that happens to be aligned with a notional geopolitical adversary who is frequently helped through the backdoor. This is because Belarus is landlocked, and European sanctions have restricted its traditional export routes. So any significant new flow of Belarusian potash to the US would face complicated logistics and could require transit through infrastructure and ports of Russia, the very country Trump is trying to squeeze in an effort to end its war with Ukraine.

For New Delhi, the question is not simply whether Trump can secure cheaper potash for American farmers; it is whether Washington – by rearranging the global fertilizer market for its own agricultural survival amid a cratering of ties with Canada – ends up making Indian farmers pay more. India requires roughly 4-5 million tonnes of potash a year and is among the world's largest importers. Although India's supply is now diversified among Canada, Russia, Israel, Jordan and others, Belarus is an important source.