The president of the United States, Donald Trump, threatened this morning to bomb Oman, a traditional ally, if it "intervenes" in talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The president issued the warning during an interview with Fox News, the same day that the ceasefire signed two months ago with Iran expired, by which both countries gave each other 60 days to seek a definitive end to the war.
This is the second time that Trump has directed a threat of this type against Muscat, one of the mediating capitals in the current conflict, which has already dragged on for half a year. In May, the president was upset when it emerged that Oman was discussing with Iran the possibility of partnering to collect tolls in Hormuz, a crucial bottleneck through which a fifth of the world's crude oil passed before the war. “Oman will behave like everyone else or we will have to blow them up,” the president said then.
What has provoked their fury on this second occasion is the information that Tehran and Muscat were negotiating a new plan for the joint reopening of Hormuz. Shortly after Trump's threat, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei announced that "an understanding has been reached on the transit route map," alluding to the close critic.
Although details about the agreement have not yet emerged, some information in the last week pointed to an agreement that would allow Hormuz to be reopened in such a way that ships would enter through a route close to Iran and leave through another close to Oman. In an initial and provisional phase, ships would circulate without paying taxes or tolls, which could be imposed later.
Trump, who has been trying for weeks to reach a dignified solution to this unpopular war – which has dragged on five months longer than he initially predicted – has among his main objectives the reopening of Hormuz, but on his own terms. Last week, he repeatedly insisted on the idea that Washington already “controls” the strait, although Iran has not ceased its attacks in recent weeks against ships trying to cross it. Today, from the Oval Office, he insisted on the idea: "I love the idea of controlling it. We control it with the blockade. We have total control over the strait," he stated, without elaborating.
In the memorandum of understanding signed in June by the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Trump, who signed the document in public from the Palace of Versailles, both parties committed to ceasing their attacks, lifting their respective naval blockades in the region and negotiating the limitation of the Iranian nuclear program while Washington progressively lifted its sanctions on the regime. But the disparate interpretations of what was signed frustrated the ceasefire, so the bombings were immediately resumed in Iranian territory and against US bases in the region.
The failure of the truce, embodied in an expired document, increases uncertainty about the future of the war. While Trump seeks to end it, now that there are two and a half months left for the midterm elections, Tehran has said in public that it is willing to “accompany” the president, maintaining the war, until the next presidential elections in 2028.
“The number one objective is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, under any circumstances, a nuclear weapon,” Trump insisted this Monday through his platform, Truth Social. However, Baghaei has stated that negotiations on the nuclear deal “never started,” as they have focused in recent weeks on how the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened.
With the battle front and the diplomatic one at a standstill, the two countries have entered into a strategy of attrition, economic in the case of the US against Iran, and political in the case of Tehran. To this end, Trump has revoked the exemptions from sanctions on Iranian oil that he had granted as part of the memorandum signed two months ago and has reestablished the naval blockade on Iranian ports. But Iran believes it will be able to endure greater suffering than Trump, whose electoral aspirations may be frustrated by the blockade in Hormuz, which is strangling global energy markets.
