Trump developing post-Iran war Middle East strategy to contain Tehran and expand normalization
Quick Look
- US President Donald Trump is developing a post-Iran war strategy to contain Tehran's regional influence and expand normalization between Israel and its neighbors, according to Axios citing two US officials.
- The plan includes building a Gulf alliance, addressing October 7 fallout, and broadening the Abraham Accords, with implementation potentially unaffected by Israel's upcoming Knesset election.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The strategy is being developed amid ongoing tensions with Iran and follows the October 7, 2023 attacks, aiming to shape US Middle East policy after a potential Iran war and during Trump's final term.
According to a senior official, Trump has held two meetings in recent weeks to discuss the plan
US President Donald Trump is working on тАЬsomething much biggerтАЭ for the Middle East once the Iran war ends, Axios reported, citing two US officials and other sources. According to the report, the initiative is part of a broader post-Iran war strategy being developed by the Trump administration. The plan seeks to contain TehranтАЩs regional influence while expanding efforts to normalise relations between Israel and its neighbours. The strategy remains in the early stages of drafting and is intended to shape WashingtonтАЩs approach to the Middle East both after the Iran war and during the final two years of TrumpтАЩs second and final term in office. тАЬIn recent weeks, the President has held two meetings with senior advisers to discuss the plan and raise ideas. In private conversations, he has said he is working on тАШsomething much biggerтАЩ in the Middle East after the war with Iran,тАЭ two US officials said. "The initial work on the strategy is being carried out both at the senior political level of the Trump administration and at the working level across various government agencies," they added.
The strategy
According to Axios, three main elements have been proposed as possible components of the strategy: Regional alignment: Building an alliance among US allies in the Gulf to contain Iran, with Washington serving as a guarantor. Addressing the October 7 fallout: Bringing the regional consequences of the October 7, 2023, attacks closer to a conclusion by securing the next phase of TrumpтАЩs Gaza plan, reaching a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement. Expanding normalisation: Broadening the Abraham Accords and pursuing a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, officials say two major events could affect the planning: IsraelтАЩs Knesset election in October and the US midterm elections in November. Of the two, the Israeli election is viewed as the more significant, particularly as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently projected to lose.
Trump to push his post-war plan regardless of Israel election results?
However, some US officials stressed that Trump would seek to implement his post-war strategy regardless of the outcome of IsraelтАЩs election, even if it results in a political stalemate. A source briefed on the process said it could take тАЬanother few weeksтАЭ to finalise the strategy. тАЬThey are cooking it, but it is not yet cooked. The idea is to tie a whole lot of things in the region together тАФ how you create a regional alignment after the war. It is still unclear if all US allies in the region will be on board,тАЭ the source said.
End of Article
What to Watch
AI outlook тАФ possibilities, not facts
Trump will seek to implement his post-war strategy regardless of Israel's election outcome
Likely ┬╖ Within weeks
The strategy could take another few weeks to finalize
Likely ┬╖ Within weeks
Open Questions
- What specific security agreements are envisioned between Israel and Syria?
- How will the US guarantee the proposed Gulf alliance against Iran?
- What concessions might Saudi Arabia require for normalization with Israel?
