Trump developing post-Iran war Middle East strategy to expand normalization and contain Tehran

According to a senior official, Trump has held two meetings in recent weeks to discuss the plan

US President Donald Trump is working on “something much bigger” for the Middle East once the Iran war ends, Axios reported, citing two US officials and other sources. According to the report, the initiative is part of a broader post-Iran war strategy being developed by the Trump administration. The plan seeks to contain Tehran’s regional influence while expanding efforts to normalise relations between Israel and its neighbours. The strategy remains in the early stages of drafting and is intended to shape Washington’s approach to the Middle East both after the Iran war and during the final two years of Trump’s second and final term in office. “In recent weeks, the President has held two meetings with senior advisers to discuss the plan and raise ideas. In private conversations, he has said he is working on ‘something much bigger’ in the Middle East after the war with Iran,” two US officials said. "The initial work on the strategy is being carried out both at the senior political level of the Trump administration and at the working level across various government agencies," they added.

The strategy

According to Axios, three main elements have been proposed as possible components of the strategy: Regional alignment: Building an alliance among US allies in the Gulf to contain Iran, with Washington serving as a guarantor. Addressing the October 7 fallout: Bringing the regional consequences of the October 7, 2023, attacks closer to a conclusion by securing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, reaching a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement. Expanding normalisation: Broadening the Abraham Accords and pursuing a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, officials say two major events could affect the planning: Israel’s Knesset election in October and the US midterm elections in November. Of the two, the Israeli election is viewed as the more significant, particularly as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently projected to lose.

Trump to push his post-war plan regardless of Israel election results?

However, some US officials stressed that Trump would seek to implement his post-war strategy regardless of the outcome of Israel’s election, even if it results in a political stalemate. A source briefed on the process said it could take “another few weeks” to finalise the strategy. “They are cooking it, but it is not yet cooked. The idea is to tie a whole lot of things in the region together — how you create a regional alignment after the war. It is still unclear if all US allies in the region will be on board,” the source said.

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