Trump calls on Republicans to conduct midterm elections as an election campaign for his person

Donald Trump himself is not actually up for election on November 3rd. But for weeks he has been calling out to his Republicans: "Act as if I'm on the ballot!" At the party conference in Dallas, Trump repeated again and again: "I'm on the list."

Historically, Trump is right to a certain extent: midterm elections in the USA have always been a test of mood for the incumbent president - despite all the peculiarities that exist in individual constituencies and states.

But will it help the Republican candidates if the president alone is at the center of the election campaign this time? No, says Kyle Kondik, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. “Since the start of the Iran war, Trump’s popularity ratings have been trending downward,” emphasizes the election researcher.

Cost of living has risen enormously

Kondik sees the increase in the price of food and especially gasoline as the main reason for this. "It's essentially about the cost of living. Inflation was already the problem for the Democrats in the last presidential election. Now the Republicans are in charge and have to pay for it."

The first Republican candidates are beginning to distance themselves from Trump. Mike Rogers from Michigan, for example, who is fighting for a new seat in the Senate, says in an election advertisement: "We have to ensure that prices fall. The war with Iran must be ended, and quickly."

Republican Maria Salazar from Florida, who is fighting to get back into the House of Representatives, criticizes the sometimes brutal actions of the immigration agency ICE in her election videos. "Mr. President, your migration policy has gone too far," said Salazar, who herself has Latin American roots. Other Republican candidates have also made it clear that being too close to Trump is damaging them in the election campaign.

Majority of Americans want AI rules

Astonishing from the perspective of political scientist Kondik: Trump also seems to have lost his instinct for what concerns most people when it comes to other issues. In surveys, a majority of Americans want clear rules in the area of ​​artificial intelligence. There are protests in many places against the huge data centers that AI companies are building. “Being in favor of clear AI rules and against too many data centers would be the order of the day for a populist,” said Kondik. But Trump represents the opposite.

For November 3rd, the election researcher expects that the Republicans will lose the majority in the House of Representatives. "The only question for the House of Representatives is how clear the future majority will be for the Democrats." Since the beginning of September, the poll numbers for the Democrats have gotten even better and for the Republicans worse. In the Senate, however, everything remains open. "The Senate is literally hanging in the air."

What happens on election day?

As one of the most renowned election researchers in the US, does Kondik believe that the midterms will be free and fair? That Trump will not, as critics fear, deploy the National Guard and ICE employees on election day in order to deter voters with a migrant background? Or that Trump doubts the results and does not accept them?

Kondik hesitates for a moment and then says: "I am confident that it will be a fair election. Yes, the president has shown unfair intentions and has tried to limit postal voting because he believes that more postal voters will vote for Democrats." The Supreme Court put a stop to this. "We are all vigilant. If Trump had the opportunity to influence the result, I don't rule out that he would do it. But at the moment I don't see any signs of that. In the end, I expect it to be a free and fair election," said Kondik.