Trump's diesel dilemma — by the numbers

Diesel prices are surging as midterms approach – and they are likely to stay high in the near future, according to analysts.

The International Energy Agency's monthly report for October, released Wednesday, was the latest to predict that constraints on the diesel market will likely keep prices elevated into next year. The group warned that even if refineries step up production of diesel into the year-end inventories will likely remain strained until the second half of 2027.

Last Friday, President Donald Trump unexpectedly paused sanctions on Russian diesel fuel and announced that he reached a deal with President Vladimir Putin in which the Kremlin would release 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, or nearly 36 million barrels, to the global market.

Over the weekend, he took to Truth Social to announce an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later accused Russia of attacking the country's energy facilities.

The foreign policy developments come as rising fuel prices — particularly skyrocketing diesel — have become a major flashpoint ahead of this year's midterm election. But releasing Russian diesel to the global market is unlikely to drop prices in the near term. A note from Goldman Sachs last week even predicted that diesel prices will remain high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand.

Here's what the numbers tell us so far: