Trump's Evolving Endorsement Strategy: A Kingmaker's Evolution

Few things in modern Republican politics are as powerful as a Truth Social post from President Trump offering his "Complete and Total Endorsement" of a candidate running for office.

Since his first term in office began in 2017, Trump has offered his seal of approval more than 1,000 times in House, Senate and governor's races. An NPR analysis of who Trump endorsed and when — and what happened in those races — sheds new light on how Trump has evolved as kingmaker in the Republican Party.

NPR's analysis finds Trump has shifted his endorsement strategy in a way that effectively clears the field for his chosen candidates: announcing his support earlier than ever and backing more incumbents in safe seats who sail to victory.

In the 2018 midterms, the average Trump endorsement in a primary came about seven weeks before that election. In 2026, that number is closer to seven months. That means the average endorsement in this midterm cycle has come more than a full year before the November general election, compared to about three months before in 2018.

An increasing share of Trump's endorsements go to incumbents — about two-thirds of his overall total in these races since 2017 and nearly 75% of the announcements this cycle.

Many of them follow the same formula and use the same language, regardless of the race.

Like his Nov. 2025 post about Arkansas Rep. Rick Crawford, who ran unopposed in this year's primary.

"In Congress, Rick is working hard to Champion our Amazing Farmers and Ranchers, Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Advance American Energy DOMINANCE, Keep our now very Secure Border, SECURE, Support our Military/Veterans, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment," Trump wrote. "Rick Crawford has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!"

Or the post from March backing Rep. Kevin Hern for Oklahoma's U.S. Senate seat, vacated after Trump appointed then-Sen. Markwayne Mullin to be the Homeland Security Secretary.

"In the U.S. Senate, Kevin will continue to fight tirelessly to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Champion our Amazing Farmers and Ranchers, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Ensure American Energy DOMINANCE, Keep our Border SECURE, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, Safeguard our Elections, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment," he wrote.

"Kevin Hern will be an outstanding Senator, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement – HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!"

Even in races where the president did not weigh in during contested primaries, he quickly offers his imprimatur to the nominee, like Derek Merrin, who will seek to unseat Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a toss-up race.

Merrin "will fight hard to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Keep our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Brave Military/Veterans, Ensure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment," Trump wrote following the primary.

"Derek Merrin has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next Representative from Ohio's 9th Congressional District – HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!"

Sometimes, Republicans that Trump previously endorsed did let him down, and the president has moved to selectively endorse challengers to unseat them. This year, his preferred candidates ousted Texas Sen. John Cornyn, Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie.

There have been notable exceptions to Trump's strategy – and notable defeats. In the last month, Trump endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra to be Iowa's GOP governor nominee just four days before the primary. Feenstra narrowly lost.

He backed Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones nine months before the state's gubernatorial primary and saw him lose this week in a runoff to billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson.

In South Carolina and Oklahoma, Trump's primary picks for governor face uphill battles in runoff elections. After endorsing Lt. Gov. Pam Evette in the final days before the South Carolina primary, Trump opted to also endorse Attorney General Alan Wilson, the other runoff candidate, in a last-minute Truth Social post days before the election.