Trump’s latest tariff tantrum unlikely to end well for the US
Over the coming months, efforts to China-proof supply chains are likely to drive US foreign policy. Success, however, is unlikely to follow
Quick Look
US President Donald Trump is initiating new tariff wars, imposing 25% tariffs on Brazil and 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, India, and EU states, citing unfair trade and forced labor practices, amidst an unpopular military adventure in Iran and upcoming midterm elections.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
US President Donald Trump is renewing tariff wars after an "ineffectual, expensive and inconclusive military adventure in Iran," with midterm elections four months away.
After devoting the first half of 2026 to an ineffectual, expensive and inconclusive military adventure in Iran, it seems US President Donald Trump is about to turn afresh to the wars he loves best – the tariff wars he still believes can make America great again.
He can’t quite walk away from the war in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s refusal to capitulate has left Trump with an awkward obligation to fight on, despite the widespread unpopularity of the conflict, even among his base, and the need to focus attention on midterm elections just four months away.
Perhaps the White House has concluded that the war and its inflationary effects must be relegated to the back burner if support for Republican candidates in November’s midterms is to be protected.
Whether trade wars can distract attention is open to question. At least, the White House seems determined to try – even if it means dredging through ancient corners of US legislative history to bypass the US Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs rationalised with the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
One signal of a renewed tariff war came just over a week ago when Trump slapped 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Brazil after a year-long probe, under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, into unacceptable unfair trade practices.
On the heels of those tariffs, the US on Thursday imposed a wave of Section 301 tariffs, ranging from 10 to 12.5 per cent, on 60 countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, India and European Union member states, as a result of investigations into forced labour practices.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Efforts to China-proof supply chains will drive US foreign policy.
Likely · Within months
Success for US foreign policy in China-proofing supply chains is unlikely.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- How will affected countries retaliate to the new tariffs?
- Will the tariff wars distract from the Iran conflict and inflation?
- Can the White House bypass the Supreme Court on tariffs?
