
AI-generated summary
The six-month war between the US and Iran began after US and Israeli strikes on February 18, prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has involved reciprocal military strikes, economic sanctions, and disruptions to global oil shipping through the strategic waterway that carries one-fifth of world traded oil.
United States President Donald Trump has threatened more attacks on Iran, warning that Washington could hit Iran âanytime we wantâ, as the death toll from the latest US strikes climbed to 18, with at least 108 others wounded.
Trumpâs threat on Wednesday came after the US and Iran exchanged their biggest barrage since July. The US military struck cities and areas along Iranâs southern coast, near the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, including a wedding party in the city of Kuhestak.
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Iran retaliated with attacks on US bases across the Middle East, including Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan.
Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said, âWe hit them very hard last nightâ and that the strikes âtook out all of the new equipment that they tried to build along the Strait of Hormuzâ.
âIt was a very heavy attack last night. And weâre prepared to do another one. And anytime we want,â he said.
Iranian officials said at least 18 people were killed in the US strikes.
The victims included two children, according to Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi, Iranâs health minister. One of them was a four-year-old who was killed in the strike on the wedding party in Kuhestak in Sirik county.
At least four people were killed in that strike.
Esmaeil Baghaei, the spokesman for Iranâs Ministry of Foreign Affairs, described the Kuhestak attack as a âwar crimeâ and hit back at US claims that it does not target civilians.
âThe reality is so horrifying that even American propaganda has never dared make the claim [the US military] is making today. Sirik is not a story. The civilians are real. The victims are realâ, Baghaei wrote on X.
Iranian media said the funeral for the four Kuhestak victims will be held on Thursday.
âUncomfortable strategic positionâ
The six-month war has led to a spike in oil prices, roiled the global economy and posed increasing political problems for Trumpâs Republican Party ahead of November midterm elections in the US.
Only 31 percent of Americans approve of the war, while some 63 percent disapprove, according to a poll by the Reuters news agency and the Ipsos polling firm in August. Voters are particularly unhappy about high gas prices. Since the fighting resumed this weekend, the price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, has climbed to about $95, up more than 30 percent from the start of the war.
Trumpâs approval rating has also fallen from 40 percent to 33 percent since the conflict began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.
On Wednesday, Trump said he did not think the renewed military campaign â would last long. He also reiterated his position that the upcoming elections were not a factor in his Iran strategy.
âNumber one, Iâm not running. My party is running, and Iâm going to help my party,â he told reporters in the Oval Office. âBut I think my party respects the fact that weâre not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.â
Iran has denied seeking a nuclear weapon.
Tariq Khan, a retired Pakistani lieutenant-general and former commander of the Pakistan Armyâs Frontier Corps, said the US ânow finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable strategic position in the Iran warâ.
âThe US has not succeeded in restoring the maritime environment that existed before the war, and is now expending military resources to deal with a problem the war itself helped create,â he told Al Jazeera, referring to Iranâs closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait was a free-flowing international waterway carrying roughly one-fifth of the worldâs traded oil before the war. Tehran shut the waterway in response to the US and Israeli strikes on February 18 that began the war. Despite repeated US claims that the strait remains open, only a handful of vessels now pass through each day, and Iran continues to target ships attempting the crossing.
On Wednesday, Iranâs Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two oil tankers had struck mines and were disabled while attempting an unauthorised transit. Separately, Saudi shipping firm Bahri reported that two Filipino sailors were killed in an attack on their vessel earlier in the week.
Iranâs Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), which Tehran set up to police the Strait of Hormuz, added 11 more ships to its blacklist for alleged ânoncomplianceâ this week, on top of the 45 blacklisted last week. The PGSA said the vessels will face fines, seizures or confiscation unless they submit required documentation to Iran before attempting to cross the strait.
Strait of Hormuz
At the same time, the US has intensified an economic isolation campaign against Iran, threatening to slap countries that âtrade with Tehran with massive sanctions, while also maintaining its own blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump on Wednesday continued to insist that Washington was in control of the strait, saying US forces were helping bring âlots of boats out every day with millions of barrels of oilâ.
âWe are, for the most part, doing it without trouble. Every once in a while they shoot a drone, and we knock it down. We have control, very strong control,â he said.
On Tuesday, he had claimed the US Navy was helping escort some 30 ships out of the strait every day. Before the war, some 130 ships transited the waterway daily.
Khan, the former Pakistani general, said Iran understands it cannot defeat the US conventionally and is seeking to make the war costly for Trump.
âIf Trump escalates, Iran can portray America as being drawn deeper into another Middle Eastern war; if he restrains himself, Tehran can claim that American military superiority cannot compel Iran to surrender,â he said.
âIran does not need a battlefield victory; it needs to remain standing, keep the economic disruption alive, and make the war politically costly for the US. Tehran has to make American victory increasingly unaffordable â militarily, economically and electorally.â
AI outlook â possibilities, not facts
The US will conduct additional military strikes on Iran in the coming days or weeks
Likely ¡ Within days
Iran will continue targeting commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz
Very likely ¡ Within weeks
Brent crude oil prices will remain elevated above $90 per barrel as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed
Likely ¡ Within months

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