
AI-generated summary
Relations between Trump and Zelensky began in 2019 with a phone call in which Trump asked Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden's alleged pressure on Kiev regarding Burisma and Hunter Biden, leading to Trump's first impeachment. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Trump criticized Zelensky and blocked US aid.
It all began in April 2019, during Trump's first term, when the occupant of the White House called Zelensky to congratulate him on his election. The détente did not last long: in July of the same year the first fiery phone call took place in the middle of the American presidential campaign. Trump asks Zelensky to "get to the bottom" of the investigation to ascertain the alleged pressure from his challenger Joe Biden on Kiev, aimed at covering up an investigation into the links between the energy company Burisma and his son Hunter. In September, the two leaders met on the sidelines of the UN assembly and the Ukrainian president publicly stated that he had not been personally pressured by Trump. Despite this, in December the American president was impeached: his first impeachment was closely linked to the pressure exerted on Zelensky.
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With the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Trump limits himself to a timid display of solidarity towards Zelensky, preferring to focus his energies on criticizing the Biden administration for its management of the conflict. The hostility grows over time and in June 2024 Trump harshly attacks the Ukrainian leader, calling him "the greatest political touts in history" because, according to him, every time he goes to the United States he leaves with 60 billion dollars. An exit that comes after Trump pushed the Republican Party to block the last tranche of aid to Kiev promised by Biden. The situation takes a decisive turn in January 2025, when Trump officially returns to the White House and assures that he will put an end to the war in Ukraine in a short time.
The month of February 2025 turns out to be crucial. While the United States and Ukraine negotiate an agreement on mineral resources, Trump launches his harshest attacks, going so far as to define Zelensky as an "unelected dictator". A few days later, a surprising head-on collision took place in the Oval Office in front of the cameras, and the humiliation of the Ukrainian leader quickly became a global sensation. In March the United States suspended military aid, prompting the Ukrainian president to attempt to mend relations by writing a letter to Trump, an attempt that culminated in the reconciliation phone call on March 19. The détente materializes in April, when the two meet in the Vatican at the funeral of Pope Francis and, a few days later, finally sign the minerals agreement they had been working on for months.
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Geopolitical tensions reignite in August 2025, when Trump rolls out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin in Alaska. In response, Zelensky flies to the White House accompanied by a large delegation of European leaders, including Macron, Starmer and Meloni, as well as the leaders of the European Union and NATO. Two months later, in October, Zelensky returns to Pennsylvania Avenue to ask for long-range weapons. The crisis becomes further complicated in February 2026, when the United States attacks Iran and the Ukrainian game inevitably intersects with the Middle East, where Putin plays an important role. In this climate of uncertainty, Trump and Zelensky meet in June at the G7 in Evian, and the following month the Ukrainian leader flies back to Washington to discuss the resumption of negotiations.
In September 2026, a new meeting takes place on the sidelines of the UN Assembly, during which Zelensky announces Trump's green light for the licenses for Patriot systems. The truce, however, is ephemeral. In October, while negotiations were underway in Miami between Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Ukrainian delegates and European officials, Trump surprised everyone by announcing an agreement with Putin for the supply of diesel. The agreement infuriates Zelensky, who publicly calls the decision "unfair and dishonest". Trump's response is even more angrier and marks a perhaps definitive break: the American president openly declares that the time has come for Ukraine to have a new leader.
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The United States will continue to reduce military aid to Ukraine in the coming months
Likely · Within months
Trump-Putin diesel deal will have limited effect on battlefield in Ukraine
Possible · Within months
Zelensky will seek to strengthen relations with European allies to compensate for reduced US support
Very likely · Within months

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