American President Donald Trump's strategy in Venezuela to kidnap the robber captain and leave his 40 robbers in office is remarkable. The US government legitimized the kidnapping of the brutal, corrupt ruler Nicolás Maduro by portraying him as the head of a state-run drug cartel that flooded the US with drugs and used the proceeds to finance terrorism.
The logical consequence would have been to also collect the other pillars of the cartel, such as Maduro's deputy Delcy Rodríguez or the nefarious Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello Rondón. Before other interests gained the upper hand, the US accused him of suppressing opposition and enriching himself thanks to criminal groups.
But these are the figures with whom Trump is now doing his oil deals, while he no longer says a word about narco-terrorism and has relegated Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado to the spectator bench. Machado differs from the incumbent Prime Minister Delcy Rodríguez in that she has democratic legitimacy, while Rodríguez owes her position to the Maduro camp's retention in power and cooperation with Trump. Trump doesn't seem to be interested in strengthening democracy.
Pragmatism is essential in international affairs; Diplomacy always gravitates towards the true rulers. It is fair to ask whether everyone would be better off if the US secured access to 20 percent of Venezuela's oil reserves and 17 underdeveloped oil fields. Sometimes the kleptocrat on the hand is better than the pigeon on the roof, one might argue. The project promises tax revenue and jobs.
However, it would be extremely naive to expect that this tax revenue would benefit the country's people. The money flows into coffers controlled by people who see the twilight of their regime approaching and who also have professional practice in diverting state revenues into their private coffers.
Alejandro Betancourt is behind the American contract partner North American Blue Energy Partners, based in Barbados. He was investigated in Spain, Switzerland and the USA on suspicion of money laundering; Venezuela's opposition accuses him of bribery and embezzlement of state funds. Betancourt denies wrongdoing. He is no guarantee that the citizens of Venezuela will get justice in this oil deal.
The opposition is against the oil deal
At the same time, Western know-how and capital are urgently needed to develop the oil sources. The agreement gives foreign companies more certainty in the short term, increasing the chances of them investing in a country that expropriated foreign oil companies in 2007. However, without political support within Venezuela, investments remain risky. Beyond the Chavista clique around Rodríguez, there appear to be large parts of the opposition to the deal.
The fundamental problem is that powerful groups now have an interest in ensuring that political conditions remain as they are. This applies to the illegitimate rulers who are trying to buy their political survival with the oil deal. This applies to those foreign oil companies that venture back into the country. And that applies to Trump, who boasts about having engineered the largest oil deal in history. Do we now have to imagine that the Americans, as a force of order, are keeping the Chavistas in power in order to preserve the oil deal?
The hope of American consumers that gasoline will soon become cheaper because Venezuela's oil is entering the market is unlikely to be fulfilled. It takes a lot of time and money to get the oil industry going again after decades of socialist mismanagement. Since the oil deal was announced, the price of oil has actually risen significantly. This reflects the Iran war - and the sober assessment that Venezuela cannot quickly compensate for the losses caused there.
More seriously, there are plenty of people around the world who have defended America as a force for good: a force that, despite obvious missteps, seeks to promote the rule of law and respect sovereignty. Latin America's left, which has always branded the USA as a country that wants to acquire natural resources by any means possible, can feel vindicated. It will take a lot of diplomacy to repair the damage.
