HANDE ATILGAN ANKARA - While Turkey initiated a comprehensive government policy against the decline in birth and child population rates by declaring 2025 as the "Year of the Family" and the period 2026-2035 as the "Decade of Family and Population", the latest report of the US Census Bureau revealed that "population aging", which affects all areas of life from economy to social security, has become a world problem. According to the report titled "An Aging World: 2025", while the rate of population aged 65 and over in the world reached 10.5 percent, this group surpassed the number of children under the age of 5 for the first time in human history. The report revealed that this critical demographic change is occurring faster than the projections in current studies and that the aging population problem goes beyond rich countries.
hit Europe
In the report, while the segment of the world population aged 65 and over will be 852 million in 2025, it is predicted that this number will increase to approximately 2 billion in 2060 and the proportional increase will be from 10.5 percent to 19.6 percent. The report estimates that the rate of the elderly population in the United States will increase from 18.9 percent to 23.4 percent, and that in Europe, which is most affected by the aging population problem, this rate will increase from 21 percent to approximately 31 percent.
african young
While United Nations data show that approximately 132 million babies are born annually, approximately 47 million of these births will take place in Africa in 2024. In EU countries, only 3.5 million babies will be born in 2024. In other words, in 2024, approximately 13.5 times more babies were born in Africa than in Europe. The African continent, which recorded last year that almost half of its population was a child and hosts the top 10 countries with the highest number of children in the world, is currently the youngest populated region in the world. However, in the projection for 2060, the elderly population in Africa is expected to increase more than 4 times in the said period. A large increase in the number of elderly people is expected in Asia. It is pointed out that even in countries such as China, India, Bangladesh, Mexico and Vietnam, which are known for their population density, fertility rates are now below the replacement level.
The world is looking for solutions
This change is gradually increasing its impact on public budgets and social life. States are turning to creating new mechanisms on many issues, from the retirement system to the cost of care, from the health system to the skill gap in the labor market.
Experts evaluated what the new population order will bring to Milliyet:
What is the situation in Turkey?
'UN must take action'
Gerontologist Dr. Kemal Aydın: Home care, remote care… In fact, there is an important infrastructure for the elderly population in Turkey. Civil society is weak here and needs to increase its efforts. As Türkiye, we have made important initiatives at the UN since 2002. We tried to keep the elderly population crisis on the agenda. Just as countries joined hands in the Covid-19 pandemic, just as we are fighting against global warming, we should also take action against the global aging crisis. This issue should be an area on which the UN meets every year and encourages countries to undertake new studies. In the West, the elderly are ignored because of the economic perspective. Where there is a young population, there are not enough funds to be transferred to this area. In fact, our intention was to hold a summit on the elderly population under the umbrella of the UN, together with Islamic countries, in 2023, on the centenary of our country. The pandemic and the earthquake also disrupted these works. Keep the elderly alive so that you can benefit from that experience. There's a lot of work to be done.
'The population is aging rapidly'
Tarkan Zengin, lecturer at Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University: The problem of population decline is not an issue specific to our country, but our main problem is that we have come to a problem in 50 years that it took Western Europe more than 100 years. In just the last 5 years, our elderly population has increased by 20 percent, and our country has entered the 'too old' status with a rate of 11.1 percent. Population projections predict that the rate of people over the age of 65, which is 10.6 percent today, will be 13.5 percent in 2030, 17.9 percent in 2040, 27 percent in 2060, 33.4 percent in 2080 and 33.6 percent in 2100. Rapid population aging poses significant economic and social risks. In labor markets, risks such as labor shortage, an aging labor market, productivity decline, and skill gap that will emerge with green and digital transformation will be encountered. In terms of social security, premium income will decrease, and expenses will increase as the time spent in retirement and health expenses will increase. In this process, the implementation of a compulsory care insurance should be brought to the agenda.
'Retirement age is debatable'
