Changes made to the election law one year before the elections are not valid in the elections. If this is taken into account, it means that we will go to the polls with the current system, unless there is a change in the election law in October for 2027 at the latest, or in February at the latest if we consider March 2028. I think the elections will be held with the current system.
THE FATE OF THE ELECTION
As the elections become visible, the atmosphere of politics changes. The search for alliances will accelerate towards the elections. The 50 percent plus 1 system and alliances have damaged the DNA of Turkish politics. He sentenced the parties that would receive 50 percent to 1 percent. He brought up the coalition negotiations of the 1980's. There is a difference. At that time, coalition negotiations were being held after the elections, now they are before the elections.
We will watch with amazement what negotiations will take place as the election approaches. The political struggle will become harsher. The fate of the election will be determined by the struggle between the CHP and the New Party and whether the DEM Party nominates a presidential candidate.
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
There is no debate about President Erdoğan being a candidate. The question of who will be the opposition candidate is literally like an equation with many unknowns.
When we enter the election process, the Gezi spirit will start a campaign for the CHP and the New Party to nominate a common candidate. They will put pressure on Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, whom they declare a traitor, to support the presidential candidate of the New Party. Kılıçdaroğlu's decision will have an impact on the election outcome.
For now, Mansur Yavaş and Özgür Özel seem to be the favorites.
IMAMOĞLU IS UNCOMFORTABLE
Meanwhile, Özgür Özel's bringing up candidates other than Ekrem İmamoğlu caused discomfort in Silivri.
Özgür Özel said, "If we cannot nominate İmamoğlu, we have to determine a candidate with the same strength using the same method."
It is said that İmamoğlu is disturbed by two issues.
1. Mentioning presidential candidates other than one's own
2. Not opening a Presidential Candidate Office at the New Party Headquarters
In this election, Özgür Özel will fight with Ekrem İmamoğlu team within the party and with CHP outside the party.
ERDOĞAN FACTOR
Every election is like the Sirat bridge of politics.
President Erdoğan is entering these elections as the favorite.
I will share some data from ASAL Research company. Then what I say will be better understood.
ASAL, “Who should govern Turkey in case of a possible war?” he asked. Now let's look at the answers given.
48.1 percent of those surveyed say Erdoğan. The rate of those who say Özgür Özel is 12.5 percent
Mansur Yavaş follows him with 6.5 percent. While the rate of those who say Ekrem İmamoğlu is 3.9 percent, the rate of those who say Devlet Bahçeli is 3.0 percent. Those who say Selahattin Demirtaş are 2.5 percent, followed by Müsavat Dervişoğlu with 1.8 percent. Those who prefer Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu stay at 1.3.
The total of opposition candidates is 30.4 percent. In this case, the total opposition does not equal one Erdoğan.
Those who are undecided, do not answer and click the other option make up 20.4 percent.
TWO DATA
Two data are important in this survey:
1. Erdoğan's leadership in times of crisis gives confidence to Turkey.
Despite the Iran war on our border, Erdoğan made Turkey stand out as the island of stability in the region.
2. The Presidential election is defined as the election of the 1 percent due to the 50 percent plus 1 rule. He wins this election by attracting 20.4 percent of the undecided voters to his side.
THE PROBLEM OF THE OPPOSITION
The problem with the opposition is that it does not give the society confidence in solving both crises and economic problems.
Look, when asked what Turkey's most important problem is in GENAR's August survey, inflation and the cost of living come first by far with 33 percent. This rate was 28.9 percent 1 month ago.
When asked who will solve this problem, our people do not say that the opposition will solve it. Again, the AK Party says it will solve it.
The opposition needs to put its hat down and think about this issue.
The government needs to learn a lesson from the fact that inflation and the cost of living are by far the most important problems.
The Iran war shows that the Turkish economy has become resistant to external shocks, but the citizens are not strong enough to withstand the high cost of living.
ERDOĞAN'S WARNING
The AK Party should not be complacent due to the disorganization of the opposition. I am not making this warning. President Erdoğan made it in the authorized committees. He did it at a time when the name of the New Party was being covered in social media. "Do not let the disorganization of the opposition lead you to complacency. Follow the opposition from a certain distance but seriously. Be on the field. We will do politics ru be ru, that is, face to face," he said. The AK Party's opponent in these elections is neither the New Party nor the CHP. The rival of the government is the high cost of living.
They need to take this fact into account and relieve retirees, minimum wage earners and tradesmen before the elections.
ÖZGÜR ÖZEL-KILIÇDAROĞLU RELATIONSHIP
There is an interesting relationship between Kılıçdaroğlu and Özgür Özel. While Kılıçdaroğlu is rising and at the peak of his power, Özgür Özel is also rising. He becomes a member of parliament, group deputy chairman or even group chairman.
While Kılıçdaroğlu is liquidated, Özgür Özel becomes even stronger. It gets higher. He overthrows Kılıçdaroğlu and becomes CHP Chairman.
Kılıçdaroğlu returns to the head of CHP with absolute failure, Özgür Özel wins again. He leaves CHP and establishes his own party. There is no win-win relationship here.
As in Fikret Kızılok's poem "Süleyman is always the prime minister". The winner is always Özgür Özel. Özgür Özel always wins. Süleyman, sorry, Özgür Özel is always the prime minister.
ARCHIVE DOES NOT LIE
Özgür Özel had mentioned Kılıçdaroğlu's famous presidential candidacy and said that the candidate in his mind was Ekrem İmamoğlu or Mansur Yavaş.
But on the screens, he fiercely defended Kılıçdaroğlu. Meral Akşener has said that Kılıçdaroğlu fits the description of "the candidate who will win" exactly.
He is said to have said, "I think the right candidate is our Chairman."
So there is such a thing as archive.
