TVBS latest poll shows Shen Boyang 41% and Jiang Wanan 49%! Zhao Xiaohui: The key is the remaining 11% of undecided voters

TVBS released the latest Taipei mayoral election poll yesterday (8th). The gap between the current mayor Chiang Wanan, who is seeking re-election, and the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang is only single digits, triggering heated discussions among the outside world. In this regard, writer Zhao Xiaohui said that Jiang Wanan's die-hard base has almost been drained and reached the ceiling. As long as Shen Boyang continues to promote "substantial political opinions and slogans" and explodes the voting rate to 75%, this 8% gap will be reversed in the last 51 days, a golden cross.

Zhao Xiaohui said in a Facebook post that with 51 days left in the election, the latest Taipei mayoral poll data released by TVBS is an explosive political earthquake. In the survey of TVBS, the most blue-leaning and authoritative organization, Shen Boyang not only broke through the 40% ceiling to 41%, but the gap between the two parties also went from 28 percentage points in May to 20 percentage points, shrinking to only 8 percentage points (41% vs. 49%)! The poll was conducted from October 3 to 7 this year.

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Zhao Xiaohui pointed out that from a tactical and communication perspective, this poll confirmed three major strategic turning points. The blue camp poll certified that the "ocean current" had actually broken through. This was not a self-promoting poll by the pan-green camp or the stratosphere. This was TVBS, the base camp of the blue camp. According to the poll data, Shen Boyang's support surged by 11 percentage points, which directly proves that "Shunbao"'s physical land war and exclusive interviews with Wang Weizhong and Li Sixuan have actually penetrated into the living rooms of dark blue and middle-aged and elderly people, pulling "middle and light blue voters" towards Shen Boyang's camp.

Zhao Xiaohui continued to point out that Jiang Wanan’s mud war had a “big backlash.” Jiang Wanan’s support plummeted from 58% to 49%, a drop of 9 percentage points. This represents the “drugs, methadone, and abolition of death” mud war that Lanying spent a lot of money to lay out in the past month. Not only did it not hurt Shen Boyang, but it angered the middle class and middle voters who value common sense governance. This proves that Jiang Wanan's weakness of "only slogans and no municipal results" has been seen through by the citizens; only 11% of undecided voters remain, "75% The voting rate has officially started. The number of undecided voters has been reduced to 11%. The representative election has officially entered an extremely tight hand-to-hand battle!

Zhao Xiaohui bluntly said that in this situation where the gap is only single digits, Jiang Wanan's die-hard base has almost been drained and reached the ceiling. As long as Shen Boyang continues to promote "substantial political opinion beef and slogan" and push the voting rate to 75%, this 8% gap will be reversed in the last 51 days, a golden cross.

This poll was conducted by the TVBS Public Opinion Survey Center on October 3, 2015, and from 18:30 to 22:00 in the evenings of October 5 to 7. It contacted 1,284 Taipei citizens over the age of 20. 164 people refused to be interviewed, with a refusal rate of 12.8%. 1,120 valid samples were successfully interviewed. At the 95% confidence level, the sampling error was within ±2.9 percentage points. The sampling method adopts random sampling with the last four digits of the city's telephone number and telephone interviews. All data are statistically weighted according to maternal gender, age, region, education level and other variables. The source of funding for the investigation is TVBS.