
AI-generated summary
Investors are monitoring U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve communications for signals on monetary policy, particularly regarding inflation trends and interest rate path. Service-sector inflation and AI-driven demand have emerged as specific concerns among Fed officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were relatively unchanged on Tuesday as investors awaited new clues on the state of the U.S. economy.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was more than 1 basis point higher at 4.974%. Yields on the 2-year note were up less than 1 basis point at 4.762%, while the 30-year Treasury yield gained 1 basis point to 5.306%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will deliver remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Treasury Market Conference on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Michael S. Barr, a member of the central bank's Board of Governors, will speak at a housing affordability summit in Chicago.
It comes after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told an audience in London that he was "especially attuned to elevated inflation in service-sector industries, and to any evidence that AI data center construction is spilling out of its own lane and raising aggregate output beyond what the economy can absorb."
"If demand overheats, there is no ambiguity about how the Fed needs to respond," he said.
Goolsbee also noted that forecasters had spent more than a year pushing back the date when inflation was supposed to peak and start falling.
"Originally it was supposed to happen in Q4 2025. Then Q1 2026. Then Q2, then Q3, then Q4 — and now sometime in 2027," he said. "That's not a comforting pattern."
Oil prices remain in focus on Tuesday, with prices lower after reports claimed Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and as Saudi Arabia is reportedly aiming to restart its East-West pipeline as soon as as this week.
This comes amid increasing pressure from Washington on Tehran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said all Iranian airlines will be shut down from Wednesday.
Futures for international benchmark Brent crude for November delivery were last down 1% to trade at $98.50 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 2% to $93.50 per barrel.
President Donald Trump will meet with world leaders at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Federal Reserve officials will provide insights on inflation trajectory and potential policy responses in their upcoming speeches
Likely · Within days
U.S. Treasury sanctions on Iranian airlines will take effect as announced starting Wednesday
Very likely · Within days

In his speech at the Energy Round Table Meeting held within the scope of the 19th Turkey Investment Conference organized by DEIK and TAIK, Alparslan Bayraktar, Chairman of the Foreign Economic Relations Board and Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, announced Türkiye's 'New Energy Architecture' vision for 2040. Bayraktar emphasized the challenges of energy security and detailed the strategy based on demand, dependency and decarbonization. He stated that Türkiye spends 70-80 billion dollars annually on energy imports and said that reducing this dependence is the main goal. The 2040 vision was planned to create five basic policy areas on electrification, renewable energy, energy efficiency, nuclear energy, oil and natural gas and mines. Bayraktar shared a total investment estimate of over 300 billion dollars, saying that an investment of 30 billion dollars is required in 2035 and 50 billion dollars for distribution. He stated that Turkish Petroleum aims to reach a production capacity of 1 million barrels per day in 2035 and fully meet the demand for oil and natural gas in 2040. He also predicted that 16-17 million new vehicles will be on the road by 2040, 80% of which will be electric or hybrid. He emphasized that he plans to introduce legislation for SMRs in 2027 and to cooperate with the United States in the fields of nuclear energy, LNG, critical minerals and energy infrastructure. TAİK President Murat Özyeğin stated that energy transformation is critical for world energy security.

The Ministry of Finance proposes an increase in excise duty on all main categories of alcoholic beverages, including ethyl alcohol, beer, wine, fermented beverages, intermediate products, cider and perry. Revenues above the 2026 level are to be transferred to the National Health Fund in the amount of PLN 2.8 billion in 2027 and 2028. The goal is to reduce alcohol consumption and improve public health.

Ludwik Kotecki will be a guest on Radio RMF24 in the Rozmowa o 7:00 program, who will discuss the rising prices of electricity and gas, their impact on other sectors of the economy and possible actions of the Monetary Policy Council, including a potential increase in interest rates. The issues of state intervention in the event of fuel price spikes and a comparison of the government's and the president's fuel project will also be discussed.

Exor, the holding company of the Agnelli family, announces a share buyback program of up to 500 million euros to be executed on the market by March 2027. The net asset value per share decreased by 3.9% in the first half of 2026, while the MSCI World index grew by 11.8%. John Elkann points out that Stellantis was the only one of the four largest companies to see a decline in share price, but highlights the encouraging early results of the FaSTLAne 2030 strategy.

Lithuania refuses to resume the transit of Belarusian potash fertilizers through its territory, which could disrupt the deal between the United States and Belarus, Bloomberg reports, citing Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestustis Budrys. Poland is considered as an alternative route, but has not yet agreed to allow cargo to pass through.

California wine growers are struggling to sell grapes due to a sustained decline in wine sales, forcing many to harvest at a loss, leave fruit on the vine, or replace vineyards with higher-demand crops like almonds and olives, with some uprooting generational vineyards as demand continues to fall.