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BackUkraine to intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries while avoiding civilian targets, Zelenskyy says
Ukraine to intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries while avoiding civilian targets, Zelenskyy says
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Guardian International54 minutes agoWorld2 min read

Ukraine to intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries while avoiding civilian targets, Zelenskyy says

Quick Look

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will increase attacks on Russian oil refineries in response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but will not target civilians, citing intelligence showing Putin has authorized broader attacks on civilian targets ahead of winter.
  • He also discussed Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Donbas, ammunition shortages for fighter jets, upcoming air defense missile deliveries, and domestically produced ballistic missiles.
  • Meanwhile, exit polls in Latvia’s parliamentary election show the pro-Ukraine United List leading, though populist parties gained ground amid fears of Russia and cost-of-living pressures.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Ukraine has been under sustained Russian attack since the full-scale invasion in 2022, with repeated strikes on energy infrastructure, civilian areas, and military targets. Russia has sought to gain control of the Donbas region as a precondition for peace talks. Ukraine has been receiving Western military aid, including F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems, while developing domestic capabilities such as the FP-7 ballistic missile. Latvia, a NATO member, has consistently supported Ukraine and increased defense spending amid fears of Russian hybrid warfare.

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Ukraine will increase its attacks on Russian oil refineries, but won’t target civilians, because of a new policy of airstrikes by Moscow designed to force people to abandon Kyiv and other cities, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. Ukraine’s intelligence service has obtained documents showing the Russian ruler, Vladimir Putin, has issued a new doctrine of military attacks on a much broader range of civilian targets ahead of winter, ⁠Ukraine’s president told Reuters. “We saw documents and we know that they ⁠allow them to attack infrastructure, logistics, and especially to attack ​in the cities, in the villages, everywhere, roads, schools, hospitals,” he said. “To pressure people to leave the capital, leave different cities: this is the goal of the operation.”

“We have to respond in any way [we can]. With their attacks on our energy, we have to respond on their energy. First of all, oil refiners: what gives money to them for this war,” Zelenskyy said. “But we will not respond, of course … on any civilian objects.” Russian attacks on Saturday in Ukraine killed at least six people and damaged Kyiv’s Northern Bridge, disrupting traffic for a third day in Moscow’s latest effort to complicate life in the Ukrainian capital. Previously, it has hit apartment blocks, supermarket warehouses, gas stations, datacentres and other civilian targets.

A continuing Ukrainian counteroffensive dubbed Vivaldi had recaptured about 140 sq km (54 sq miles) of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Zelenskyy told Reuters. It is a setback for Putin who wants Russia to completely control the Donbas before agreeing to any peace deal. Zelenskyy said Ukraine was working to offset low supplies of ammunition for its fighter aircraft – F-16s and MiGs – that bring down about 60% of the Russian jet-powered drones. He said Ukraine was working to boost its jamming capabilities; and in the second half of October it would receive a first shipment of small, cheap air defence missiles capable of hitting new jet-powered Shahed drones. Ukraine had begun to deploy its own domestically made ballistic missile – the FP-7, which has a range of about 250km (155 miles), said Zelenskyy. It hoped to have a longer-range model, the FP-9, ready by autumn.

Exit polls from Latvia’s parliamentary election published on Saturday night favoured prime minister Andris Kulbergs’s centrist, pro-Ukraine United List party, suggesting the country will maintain its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. But populist parties also had a good night after an election campaign dominated by fears about neighbouring Russia and the cost of living at home. With 72% of ballots counted, United List was on 36.5%, followed by the populist, Maga-style Latvia First on 13.0%. Kulbergs told journalists his party would not cooperate with any parties that were pro-Russian: “Our strong position is that any economic ties with Russia makes us weak; Russia would exploit this.”

Baltic countries have warned for months that Russia is mounting sabotage, cyber and other hybrid ⁠attacks across Europe to erode support for Ukraine and sow fear, although some western officials doubt it is capable of launching ​a direct assault on Nato, of which Latvia is ‌a member. Throughout his campaign, Kulbergs promised more anti-drone capabilities for Latvia and to maintain defence spending at 5% of gross domestic product, one of the highest levels in Nato. His pro-Kremlin rivals said Latvia should stop any aid to Ukraine and instead focus more on cost-of-living issues, particularly among the country’s Russian-speaking minority.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • Ukraine will launch increased attacks on Russian oil refineries in the coming weeks

    Likely · Within weeks

  • Latvia will maintain its pro-Ukraine and pro-European foreign policy

    Very likely · Within months

  • Ukraine will receive its first shipment of small, cheap air defense missiles in the second half of October

    Very likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • What specific documents did Ukrainian intelligence obtain regarding Putin’s doctrine on civilian targeting?
  • When will Ukraine begin its increased attacks on Russian oil refineries?
  • How effective will the new shipment of small air defense missiles be against Shahed drones?
  • Will Latvia’s United List be able to form a government without cooperating with pro-Russian parties?

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This article was originally published by Guardian International.

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