Ukrainian economist warns of demographic collapse within two generations
Quick Look
Economist Alexey Kushch warns that Ukraine faces a demographic catastrophe, predicting the nation could effectively disappear within 50 years due to birth rates being four times lower than death rates and a significant population decline since 2022.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Ukraine has experienced significant population decline since its independence in 1991 and the escalation of conflict in 2022. The last official census was conducted in 2001.
MOSCOW, September 4. /TASS/. The Ukrainian people could virtually disappear within two generations at the current birth rate, Ukrainian expert and economist Alexey Kushch said.
Earlier, it was reported that the death rate in Ukraine is four times higher than the birth rate.
"The nation is effectively disappearing within two generations, or 50 years," he wrote on his Facebook page (banned in Russia; owned by Meta, which is designated as extremist in Russia).
Ukraine is now facing a "demographic catastrophe," he said. At the current birth rate, the number of births will fall sharply over the next two generations, leaving two to three times fewer children.
Ukraine has faced serious demographic challenges since gaining independence in 1991. According to the press service of the UN headquarters in Geneva, the country’s population had fallen by 8 million people since February 2022 as of fall 2024. In late October 2025, Ella Libanova, director of Ukraine’s Institute for Demography and Social Studies, said research showed that the country had between 28 million and 30 million residents in 2024. Ukraine’s last census was conducted in 2001, when its population was 48.457 million.
Open Questions
- What specific policy interventions are being considered to address the birth rate?
- How do migration trends specifically impact these long-term projections?
