Marmara University History Department Lecturer Prof. Dr. İlyas Kemaloğlu wrote about Zelenskiy's visit to Ankara and the search for a diplomatic solution in the Russia-Ukraine War for AA Analysis.
Ankara hosted consecutively important international summits and high-level bilateral meetings in the last week of October. Immediately after the 13th Organization of Turkic States (TDT) Summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy paid a one-day official visit to Ankara. Zelenskiy's visit should be considered not only in terms of Türkiye-Ukraine bilateral relations, but also with the course of developments on the Russia-Ukraine line, diplomatic initiatives of international actors and the latest developments regarding a possible ceasefire.
Trump's rapprochement with Moscow
As it is known, US President Donald Trump has expressed his intention to reconcile the Slavic brothers on various occasions since taking office and has led both bilateral and trilateral diplomatic talks. In October, especially before the elections in the USA, reaching an agreement with Russia in the field of energy in line with the aim of reducing fuel prices, easing sanctions against Moscow and stating that now is the right time to hold elections in Ukraine indicate that Washington has adopted a more determined approach to peace initiatives compared to its previous attempts. Again, Trump's invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G-20 Leaders Summit to be held in Miami in December 2026 can be considered as an important indicator of the search for rapprochement in Russia-US relations and efforts to break Moscow's isolation in the international arena.
Changing calculations of the EU
EU countries, which closely follow the policies of the US administration, have also made some changes within the framework of recent developments. While the leaders of the Scandinavian countries had a phone conversation with Putin for the first time after a long time, discussions began on who would represent the union in possible official negotiations within the EU. All these developments on the EU front indicate that some member countries, which have been distant to the idea of a ceasefire under current conditions, have to re-evaluate their attitudes in the face of changing balances of power.
The economic and social costs of the support given to Ukraine are increasingly felt by the European public and this situation is reflected in the social protests in European capitals, deepening the discussions on the sustainability of the EU's Ukraine policy. On the other hand, the Kremlin also approaches the requests for talks and dialogue from EU countries positively. Moscow wants a possible agreement to be formed not only between the USA and Russia, but also to be accepted and recognized by the EU. In addition, the fact that the diplomatic initiatives carried out by the Trump administration to date have not yet yielded any concrete results necessitates the introduction of alternative diplomatic channels for Moscow.
A new world order after a possible ceasefire?
On the other hand, Kazakhstan President Kasım Cömert Tokayev, in his speech at the 13th TDT Summit, pointed out that a significant Turkish population lives in Russia and stated that it would be beneficial for Russia to participate in TDT with observer status. In addition, Azerbaijan reached an agreement with Russia on the modernization of armored vehicles in its military inventory. Other developments that can be considered in this context include taking steps to pave the way for Russian athletes to participate in international competitions again and the world's leading companies, especially Toyota, looking for ways to return to the Russian market. It is not enough to evaluate these developments merely as efforts to increase bilateral relations with Russia. It is also possible to read these as preparations of global and regional actors and Russia's neighboring countries for a possible post-ceasefire.
It is also important in this context that a summit between Russia, Ukraine and the USA is planned to be held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on October 10-11, and Putin expressed his desire to hold a tripartite meeting with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the margins of the APEC Summit.
How should Zelenskiy's visit to Türkiye be read?
These diplomatic contacts show that negotiations on the future of Ukraine will not be limited to the relations between Moscow, Kiev and Washington, but can be shaped within the framework of a broader international balance of power, and Zelenskiy's visit to Turkey on October 31 should also be evaluated within this framework. As a matter of fact, in addition to bilateral relations, the agenda of the visit included possible peace negotiations and the security of the Black Sea.
Zelenskiy probably stated that the meeting could take place in Istanbul, although the venue for the summit was determined, in order to take the initiative regarding the summit. In other words, Zelenskiy's statements showed that Ankara is considered not only as an actor that keeps communication channels open between the parties, but also as a country that can play a role in shaping the possible negotiation process. Again, Zelenskiy wanted Ankara to continue its mediation role in order to further attract Turkey, which has so far successfully followed the policy of balance between the parties. As a matter of fact, Zelenskiy himself agreed with Trump's statement and said, "Ukraine does not have many cards on the table."
Another important aspect of the visit is Black Sea security. During the meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Zelenskiy, it was decided to work on re-establishing navigation safety in the Black Sea and operating the grain corridor effectively. In addition, defense industry, energy, infrastructure and joint industrial investments were other issues on the agenda of the meetings. Again, the entry into force of the Türkiye-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement and the discussion of the role that Turkish companies can assume in the reconstruction process of Ukraine also show that economic preparations for the post-ceasefire have begun.
In conclusion, recent developments indicate that a new diplomatic process has begun to take shape in the Ukraine issue. The USA's intensification of peace initiatives, European countries' re-evaluation of their positions in the face of changing conditions, and Russia's search for a gradual normalization in its relations with the international system show that preparations for a possible post-ceasefire are accelerating.
However, it is too early to say that all these developments will result in a permanent peace in the near future. Because differences between the parties' approaches to issues such as territorial integrity and security guarantees continue to exist. Therefore, the main issue in the coming period will be whether a ceasefire will be achieved in Ukraine, as well as the conditions under which such a ceasefire will take place and what kind of regional and global order will emerge afterwards. Based on this, it would not be wrong to say that a possible solution to the Ukraine issue will reshape not only the relations between the two countries, but also a wide geopolitical area ranging from the security architecture of Europe to the balance of power in the Black Sea, from US-Russia relations to Turkey's regional position.
