Union: The Chancellor was the last to say “yes” to Aigner – how he was driven to the decision

Berlin. It took until Sunday evening before the world officially learned what everyone had already known: Ilse Aigner was to become Federal President. This was announced by the CDU headquarters after party leader Friedrich Merz's dinner with the executive committee. The 61-year-old will appear before the Federal Assembly at the end of January as a joint candidate for the CDU and CSU - as the first woman and the first from the CSU. The SPD and the Greens have long since signaled their approval.

And Merz? Once again he seems like a driven person who has been overwhelmed by the facts. Until recently, the Chancellor had avoided deciding who would succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Most recently he declared on Monday: It should be a woman. Those close to him said the decision was finally made on Friday.

Markus Söder and the CSU had been campaigning for Aigner with all their might for weeks. And while the Chancellor remained silent, more and more CDU politicians spoke out in favor of the CSU candidate every day. Politicians from the SPD and the Greens also campaigned for the CSU politician.

Merz was in a dilemma: If he had presented his own candidate anyway, he would not only have run into a conflict with the sister party CSU, but also with his coalition partner SPD. And the Chancellor made it clear early on that he wanted a candidate who would be supported by the political center, including, if possible, by the Social Democrats and the Greens.

In Merz's environment, the Chancellor's long hesitation was justified by the fact that it was a matter of "committee processes". Merz wanted to speak to the CDU presidium on November 9th about a mean proposal. He wanted an “orderly process”.

However, to many in the CDU, the process of the past few weeks seemed anything but orderly. A member of the Federal Executive Board complained that Merz's personnel had completely slipped away. The whole process was “pretty disastrous”. Once again the Chancellor seems unprepared. How could it come to this?

Merz has known that Steinmeier's term of office expires in March 2027 since he took office as Chancellor in May 2025. The new head of state is to be elected by the Federal Assembly on January 31st.

Instead of Merz driving in pegs, CSU boss Söder rushed forward in April and publicly brought Aigner into play for the first time. Some say he wanted to distract from the CSU's poor result in the local elections. Others explained the suggestion like this: Söder knew that Aigner's name would be mentioned and that she enjoyed great sympathy in the CSU.

He wanted to put himself at the head of the movement right away - knowing full well that a name mentioned early in a personal crime story is often not the last name mentioned. A later waiver in favor of a CDU candidate would have helped Söder as an argument to push through something else - possibly his candidacy for chancellor.

Since then, the CSU boss has held back. “In this case, you really can’t blame Söder,” said even a CDU politician who is otherwise rather critical of the Bavarian Prime Minister. It was always clear that Aigner's possible candidacy would be a big topic at the CSU party conference at the end of October at the latest.

The CSU also says they didn't play foul. There was an agreement to clarify the personnel after the state elections in the fall. There was indeed a conversation with the Chancellor. But that ended non-bindingly.

It was surprising that the CSU noted that those around Merz had then released information to the public at the CSU party conference that Merz reserved the right to make his own decision. But when Merz, as a speaker at the party conference, mentioned Aigner's name in his greeting, there was demonstrative cheering.

Since then, the debate about the successor has been unstoppable. “We have an outstanding personality who is ideally suited to this as state parliament president and former federal minister, with empathy and charm,” said CSU boss Söder. “This is our offer now.”

But Merz remained silent. At this point in time, those around him emphasized that the CDU, as the strongest force in the Federal Assembly, “has the right to nominate a candidate”. There are “a number of suitable options”.

But why did Merz hesitate for so long? There are different assumptions about this in the CDU. Some believe that the chancellor was busy fighting for his office after disastrous election defeats in Berlin, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. He simply had no capacity to negotiate an agreement with Söder.

Others point to Merz's decline in power: he no longer has the authority to push through the CSU candidate Aigner within his own ranks, so he was playing for time. Especially in North Rhine-Westphalia, there are said to have been reservations about a female federal president from the CSU until recently.

Merz may have also misjudged the mood in the CDU, said a leading Union politician: The Chancellor feared that there could be great resistance in the party against a federal president from the CSU - which was not the case in Aigner's case.

Whatever the reasons were: In the end, Merz seemed like a driven person. He did not have the strength to push through his own candidate, but had to accept the CSU leader's suggestion.

But what does the decision mean for Markus Söder? Since Ilse Aigner, someone from the CSU, will now hold the highest office in the state, many in the Union consider it impossible that Söder could become Chancellor one day. Until recently, many in the CDU were convinced that the CSU boss would like to make another attempt. In 2021 he tried to become a candidate for chancellor, but was then defeated by Armin Laschet (CDU).

When there were recently rumors of a chancellor swap due to Merz's poor poll numbers and unpopularity, two possible candidates were named: North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst and Söder. “Now Söder is finally out of the race,” they say.

Did Söder consciously accept this because he gave up his ambition to move to the Chancellery? Would he rather be the first CSU leader to secure the office of Federal President for his party? Many in the Union interpret the process this way. But there are also some in the CSU who say that Söder has all the options. After all, he is Franconian - and not Bavarian.