US stock markets start the week mixed: oil market reacts to G7 measures and tensions in the Middle East

The G7 wanted to send a clear signal to the oil market on Saturday: There is no threat of a shortage. This doesn't initially reassure investors. The US service sector is also coming into focus.

Dusseldorf. After the weekend, the major US indices start the new trading week differently.

The Dow Jones standard values ​​remain unchanged at 51,095 points.

The broader S&P 500 gains 0.4 percent and is at 7,752 points.

The Nasdaq technology exchange gained 0.7 percent and reached 27,380 points.

The Nasdaq 100, a reflection of the 100 non-financial companies with the highest market capitalization, is up 0.6 percent at 30,983 points.

On Monday, investors will be paying particular attention to the development of oil prices, as Germany and the other G7 countries have agreed to use emergency oil reserves in view of rising fuel prices worldwide. From now on and over four months, 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel should actually be released under the coordination of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

100 million barrels roughly corresponds to the daily demand for crude oil that the IEA assumes worldwide. It is not yet known which country will contribute how many barrels. Investors in the oil market were unimpressed by the measure on Monday. A barrel (159 liters) of US light oil WTI for delivery in November costs 0.6 percent less on Monday afternoon. However, a barrel of Brent crude oil, the most important type of oil for Europe, costs around 0.6 percent more at around $102.

Clashes at the Bab al-Mandab Strait

The G7's signal to the oil market was clear: there is enough oil available and there is no threat of a shortage. “Oil prices are not trading at over $100 because of a shortage of crude oil,” emphasizes Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at Consorsbank. “It is record insurance costs, disruptions in international shipping and bottlenecks at refineries that are creating price pressure.”

At the start of the week, further tensions in the Middle East at the strategically important Bab al-Mandab strait are weighing on the market. Government forces in Yemen have attacked Shiite Houthi rebel positions in the Dhubab district near the strategically important Bab al-Mandab Strait. This was announced by two military representatives.

The internationally recognized government launched a major offensive on Sunday to recapture areas controlled by the Iran-aligned Houthis. The Giants Brigades, which are close to government troops, announced that the first units had advanced into the region around Bab al-Mandab.

The Houthi militia had recently won territory and took control of the strait in September.

For shipping traffic between Europe and Asia, the Bab al-Mandab is as important as the Suez Canal. As part of the Strait of Hormuz connection, which will be interrupted in spring 2026, Saudi Arabia will export a certain proportion of its oil exports through this strait.

On Monday morning, a military alliance led by Saudi Arabia said it carried out air strikes on the Houthi militia. The attacks targeted Houthi targets along the Red Sea coast, the coalition said. Shortly before, the Houthis had announced that they had taken over additional territory in southwest Yemen and taken control of a city. Saudi Arabia is allied with the Yemeni government.

Purchasing Managers' Index Services in the USA

In the afternoon there was economic stimulus from the USA for investors. The purchasing managers' index for service companies fell to 54.9 points in September from 55.4 points in the previous month, according to the monthly survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published on Monday.

The further the barometer lies above the 50 point threshold, the more growth it signals. Economists polled by Reuters had only expected a decline to 55.2 points. The partial barometer for costs climbed by 1.4 to 74.0 points, signaling rising inflation.

The Purchasing Managers' Index for the non-manufacturing sector measures the situation in the US service industry. This survey of purchasing managers and company bosses is considered one of the most influential economic indicators because it shows a country's economic development from multiple angles at an early stage.

“It is well known that service companies are the job engine of the US economy,” said economic expert Tobias Basse from NordLB on the services purchasing managers index. The labor market component of the ISM was still quite weak in July and August - and was able to jump just above the central threshold of 50 points again in September.

“This news raises hopes that the employment situation in the United States will soon be somewhat better,” said the analyst. Helaba expert Ulrich Wortberg emphasized that despite the slight setback, the overall barometer was still clearly in the growth area.

“The headwinds in the form of high energy prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical challenges appear to be limited.” By the end of the year, the US Federal Reserve will probably increase its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, “followed by a further step in the first quarter of 2027.”

Look at the individual values:

ExxonMobil: The measure by the G7 countries has dampened price pressure in the short term, but does not eliminate the structural bottleneck in processing, logistics and regional availability of fuel. This is relevant for ExxonMobil. The US group has an enormous refining platform. The stock was down 1.1 percent on Monday afternoon.

Cerebras Systems: Statements by OpenAI boss Sam Altman give the US chip developer's shares a boost. Altman called Cerebras a “close partner.” Companies are “strongly committed to pushing the boundaries of performance.” The comments followed speculation that Cerebras chips were used for the OpenAI model GPT6.1 Sol Ultrafast. Cerebras Systems shares are 8.1 percent higher than Friday.