US-Japan-Poland strategic triangle can encourage a ‘peaceful war’

Dr Patrick Mendis, a Harvard Kennedy School's former Rajawali senior fellow, is an associate-in-research at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, a senior fellow of the Pangoal Institution in Beijing, and a distinguished visiting professor of Asian-Pacific affairs at Shandong University in Jinan, China.

Published: 4:30pm, 9 Oct 2026

As Russian President Vladimir Putin watched the final stage of the massive Tsentr-2026 military exercise in the Urals recently, Chinese troops were training alongside forces from Russia, Belarus and other countries. More than 47,000 military personnel joined the exercise, which incorporated lessons from the war in Ukraine.

The symbolism extends beyond Chelyabinsk. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to Chinese military exercises with Belarus – and now China’s participation alongside Russian and Belarusian forces in Tsentr-2026 – Eurasian developments are connecting two strategic theatres once considered largely separate: the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific.

Against this background, a new strategic triangle is quietly taking shape among the United States, Japan and Poland.