On November 3, United States citizens will vote in the midterm elections. These won't decide who gets to sit in the White House; instead, Americans will be voting on who they want to see in the Capitol.
Midterm elections are held every four years, at the exact halfway point between presidential elections. The people of the United States decide who will represent them in the two chambers of the US Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate. Some states are also voting for their governor. These are the decisions on the ballot paper — but they are not the only thing voters will be taking into account.
J. Miles Coleman, an election analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, explained before the last midterms that they were "often a referendum on the president and party currently in power." If the people are content, the party of the leader in the White House does better than if the people are predominantly dissatisfied. President Donald Trump's approval ratings are currently at a record low.
Who are Americans electing in the midterms?
All the seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election. Its 435 members are elected by eligible voters across the country. Each member represents one electoral district. These are allocated based on population size. As a result, relatively large US states where few people live, such as Wyoming, have only one seat in the House of Representatives. New Jersey, a much smaller state by surface area but with a larger population, has 12. Representatives are elected for a two-year term of office.
US senators, on the other hand, are elected for a six-year term. The Senate, the other chamber of the US Congress, has 100 seats: two for each of the 50 US states, regardless of size. Around one third of these senatorial seats come up for election every two years. This year there are 35, meaning that not every state will be electing a senator in these midterms.
Separately, voters in 36 states will elect their governor, whose term of office is four years in most states. Many decisions in the US are taken at state level, on everything from abortion law to education and electoral procedure. It can therefore make a considerable difference to people's lives whether Democrats or Republicans are the ones making these decisions in their state.
Who currently has a majority in the US Congress?
At present, the Republicans, the party of President Trump, have a majority in both houses of Congress — but its margin is slim.
The House of Representatives currently has 218 Republican deputies, 214 Democrats, and one independent, who usually votes with the Republicans. Two seats are vacant. Observers think it likely that the Democrats will seize the majority in this chamber in the upcoming elections. "It would be a surprise if the Democrats don't at least take the House [of Representatives]," Coleman told the American broadcaster CBS at the end of October.
In the Senate there are currently 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independent senators who usually vote with the Democrats. When a vote in the Senate is deadlocked 50:50, the US vice president has the deciding vote. This means that currently, Trump's Vice President JD Vance would tip the scales if there were a tie in a Senate vote.
Why are the midterms so important?
Voter turnout is typically lower for midterms than for presidential elections, but the results will decisively influence US politics for the next few years. Despite the significant executive power delegated to the presidency, the majority of federal political decisions have to be approved by Congress before they can be implemented.
It is therefore considerably easier for Trump to govern the country as he chooses if the Republicans have a majority in both chambers of Congress. If the Democrats win a majority in one or both chambers, it will be more difficult for him to make changes to either domestic or foreign policy.
Which races are crucial?
The Democrats only need to win four more seats in the House of Representatives to gain a majority. They would then have 218 representatives. Out of the 435 races, only a few are still considered toss-ups. These include districts in Iowa, Virginia and Montana.
One senatorial race to watch is the one in Texas. Current polls put Democrat James Talarico level with his Republican rival, Ken Paxton. The Democrats need four more seats in the Senate to win a majority. The possibility that Texas could be one of them is already a sensation. No Democrat has won here at state level since 1994. Talarico now even has the support of some members of the Bush family, the Texas Republican dynasty of former presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, his son.
In the gubernatorial elections it is possible that, for the first time in US history, a Black woman could become state governor. In Minnesota, the Democrat Amy Klobuchar and the Black Republican Lisa DeMuth are vying for the position, while in Georgia the Black Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is up against the Republican Rick Jackson.
DeMuth is unlikely to win in Minnesota: The state generally votes Democrat, and Klobuchar, who has been state senator there for almost two decades, is much better known than her rival. In Georgia, however, the latest polls suggest it's neck-and-neck. Bottoms has a realistic chance of winning.
This article has been translated from German.
