Donald Trump is more unpopular than almost any president before him - and yet a victory for the Democrats is anything but certain. This is mainly due to the party itself.
Washington, Miami. When Jon Ossoff enters the stage, it doesn't take long for him to captivate the audience. There is enthusiastic applause when the 39-year-old formulates catchy statements. There is a lot of laughter when the Democrat makes his punchlines. And people boo as expected when Ossoff mentions the president in a derogatory way. After his speeches, he hugs the men, women and young people who come to him. Anyone who wants it gets a selfie with him.
Many of his campaign appearances are similar to the one in Atlanta. The young senator from Georgia is a star in his party. He speaks eloquently, looks good and appears close to the people. In summary: Ossoff has charisma, the most important currency in American election campaigns, and is considered a moderate.
Some even say he could become a presidential candidate as early as 2028 - although he himself has repeatedly denied any ambitions for the office.
Senator Jon Ossoff on the campaign trail: For him personally, the chances are good. Photo: Bloomberg
But right now it's about the newcomer defending his Senate seat in the midterm elections in November so that the Democrats have any chance of winning a majority in the US Senate - and that in a state that Donald Trump narrowly won in 2024.
The chances for Ossoff personally are good. In average polls, he leads his Republican challenger Mike Collins by nine percentage points. In Georgia, voters were able to begin early voting on Tuesday.
In general, the situation for the Democratic Party is comfortable two and a half weeks before the important midterm elections. If the polls are correct, the party could regain the majority in the House of Representatives and possibly even in the Senate. In national surveys, the Democrats are a good eight percentage points ahead of the Republicans, although this is not very meaningful because of the complicated electoral law. For the Senate, the race is even closer.
If the Democrats win back both chambers, the result would be a division of power in the state - and a bitter setback for President Trump, who would have to act as a "lame duck" for the rest of his 27 months in office.
In fact, the US President and his party seem to be making things incredibly easy for the Democrats at the height of the campaign for the midterm elections in early November.
There is the increasing criticism of the corruption and the obvious enrichment of Trump and his clan with the help of presidential power. There is the president's unpopular war in Iran, even though Trump promised to keep America out of the "forever wars in distant lands." The war flares up again and again almost eight months after the Israeli-American attack, although according to Trump it should only last days or at most a few weeks.
And above all, there is the ongoing inflation dynamic due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of this war. Diesel is more expensive than ever. Nothing upsets US citizens like the high cost of living. “Affordability” was already an issue in the last presidential election campaign. Trump also won the election because he promised to finally reduce inflation. That didn't work; consumer prices also rose significantly more than expected in September, at 3.7 percent.
According to surveys, only three out of ten US citizens are satisfied with their president. There has rarely been a worse value in US history. One would think that it would be easy for the political opponent in the election campaign for the “midterms”. If it weren't for the Democrats themselves.
The party has neither a clear strategic concept nor a leading figure as a counterweight to Trump who could represent such a concept. Instead, the Democrats are engaging in a fundamental dispute over direction.
California Governor Newsom: Moderate Democrat. Photo: AFP
Some believe that elections can only be won from the political center. In addition to Ossoff, these include California Governor Gavin Newsom and the party leaders in Congress, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, who speak for the Democrats in the Senate and House of Representatives.
The others are relying on a tight course to the left. Even “democratic socialism” is within the realm of conceivability.
However, if there is one thing that the broad masses of the American population can still agree on, it is the rejection of any form of socialism. The left-wing representatives include New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
Will it still be enough for the “blue wave” invoked in the democratic camp? Or will the Democrats experience their blue miracle like they did in the 2024 presidential election? With self-confidence and certainty of victory, once again facing great disillusionment?
Political analysts in Washington are divided on this. “There is no blue wave, there is a red undercurrent,” says Charlie Cook, who is considered one of the best-known election analysts in the USA and is the founder of the much-quoted “Cook Political Report”. A blue wave, says Cook, requires much broader support among the population. But the Democrats’ reputation is “still in ruins.”
Other commentators like Elliott Morris assume that there could very well be a blue wave because the Democrats are currently more popular than the Republicans - and that is the deciding factor in a de facto two-party system.
“If the Democrats want to have a chance, including in the 2028 presidential election, then they must put forward a moderate candidate from the center and, above all, come up with a positive narrative for the future of the country.” However, everyone in the party understands something different by “positive narrative” – and that is exactly the basic problem for the Democrats.
“The people against the powerful,” with this slogan Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders recently went on the campaign trail in Michigan to support El-Sayed, who is running for a Senate seat in Michigan. “If we take back power in Congress, we will not return to the status quo that got us here,” Ocasio-Cortez shouted to the crowd. It sounded like a threat, not only to Trump, but also to her moderate party colleagues.
El-Sayed, the son of Egyptian immigrants, would be the first Muslim US senator if he were to win. And it would be proof that with left-wing populist politics you can win not only in progressive cities like New York, but also across the country.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: In the “Democratic Socialists of America” club. Photo: REUTERS
The young group on the left wing is louder and has a stronger public presence than the center of the party. This is demonstrated by the fact that she has organized herself in the club of the “Democratic Socialists of America” (DSA). Mamdani and Ocasio-Cortez, as well as El-Sayed, who is not part of this group, are convinced that the Democratic Party leadership has lost touch with the base and are calling for a kind of “economic populism” from the left.
There is already talk of a new “Tea Party from the left”. An association that can hardly please the political center of the party. Parts of the Republican right founded the Tea Party in the 2010s, which turned against the moderate Republican establishment. The moderates gave in and took the far right into their midst. What happened next is well known: a kind of hostile takeover of the “Grand Old Party” by Donald Trump.
Are the Democrats threatened with a similar development, perhaps even a split in the party?
The DSA's positions include free public transport, free kindergartens, a rent control and health insurance according to European standards. The left-wing protagonists want to finance this through a tax on the rich and an immediate end to the expensive wars.
So far, so expected. But there are also positions that are rather unconventional, and that is putting it cautiously. At times there was talk of abolishing the police and prison system, a general amnesty for all irregular immigrants or abolishing the US Senate. And the attitude of the left-wing rebels towards Israel is also not compatible with many of the party's moderates: they completely reject cooperation with Israel, but their solidarity with Palestine is limitless.
There is no question that the left wing of the party has now achieved great success. Real momentum for the left camp came with Mamdani's election victory in New York in November 2025. In the metropolis's democratic primaries for the midterms in June, all three progressive candidates from Mamdani's environment won. In Wisconsin, left-wing candidate Francesca Hong has the best chance of becoming governor.
However, a victory for El-Sayed is anything but certain. He is seen as a candidate who could cost the Democrats votes - and possibly an entire state that they really need to hold in order to win a majority in the important chamber. In particular, his critical statements about Israel could deter voters. Polls show El-Sayed just ahead of his Republican opponent Mike Rogers. If he loses, the left-wing rebels are likely to start thinking - and possibly consider whether a candidate from the center might have a better chance of winning the 2028 presidential election.
The question remains what the Democrats would do with their possible majority. “A purely destructive attitude towards Trump alone will not help the Democrats in the long term, especially not with a view to 2028,” says Fukuyama. He expressly warns against attempting impeachment again.
The Democrats would have the power to destroy with a majority in the House of Representatives. Not only would they gain extensive sovereignty over the budget, but they could also make life difficult for the president with various committees. They could subpoena government members to investigative committees, demand the release of documents and overall demand more say from a president who starts wars and trade wars without even consulting Congress.
The repeated meetings between Trump and Mamdani show that the young left have no fear of contact with the president. They last met at Gracie Mansion, the official residence of the mayor of New York.
They talked about the high cost of housing, Mamdani said at a joint press conference afterwards; the president stood next to him and smiled. “I will work with anyone, no matter their party, no matter how much we may disagree on other issues - anyone who has the power and the will to lift this burden from the shoulders of New Yorkers.” Then he gave Trump the floor. Both smiled.
But even these expressions of affection from two populists can hardly hide the fact that nervousness is growing in the Republican camp. The poor poll numbers and the fact that traditionally Republican strongholds like Texas and now also Kansas are at risk are straining Trump's nerves.
The president is currently on a major campaign tour and has tightened his tone even further. “If the Democrats win, there will be an economic crisis like 1929,” said Trump on Tuesday in Alaska, who has declared the election a vote for himself even though he is not on the ballot. These “communists” would “loot your wealth, raise your taxes by five trillion dollars and open the borders,” he warned in Ohio.
Ossoff, the moderate, and his team also ask his followers for donations almost every day by email. In return he promises them great change. “A wave is building right now,” said Ossoff at his last rally in Athens, Georgia. “The kind of wave that comes once in a generation when people have been pushed too far and everyone decides together and at once to say: 'The measure is full.'" At least that's what the two wings of the party agree on.
