The US is suspected of collaborating with separatists in Canadian Alberta

Alberta is known for oil, ice hockey and an endless prairie landscape. The western province is sometimes called "Canada's Texas", partly because the population there leans towards conservative values.

Many in Alberta are skeptical of the big cities in eastern Canada and of the capital, Ottawa. They think they are stealing the province's oil revenue.

The referendum on Monday is formally not about independence, but about whether a future, binding referendum should be held on the issue.

But most people still perceive the question in this way: Should we leave Canada or stay?

Right now, everything indicates that the "remain" side is winning. But the process has stirred strong emotions across Canada.

The independence movement in Alberta has its roots in protests that arose during the covid pandemic, against restrictions and vaccine compulsion. Its leaders sound a lot like Donald Trump's Maga troops in the US.

At a meeting earlier this fall, reported in the New York Times, separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre called the government in Ottawa "a communist Trojan horse" and claimed that Chinese soldiers were stationed in Canada.

The referendum comes amid a troubled time for Canada. Donald Trump has unleashed a devastating tariff war against the country and has also repeatedly said that it will become "the 51st state of the United States" - most recently at a rally in Arizona this week.

Mark Carney, Canada's Liberal Prime Minister, himself grew up in Alberta. He visited the province's largest city, Calgary, on Thursday and addressed an audience of 5,000 on the theme of "Always Canada."

- The referendum comes at the worst possible time, he said.

- The world has become more dangerous and more divided. Some beyond our borders seek to divide us so they can own us.

He didn't mention the US or Trump, but the message was clear.

The tariff war has made Canadians unite against the threat from the neighboring country. Carney, who has maintained a firm line against the US president, has seen his approval ratings rise sharply.

From Trump's point of view, it is good if the Canadian unity cracks - for example, through the success of the separatists in Alberta. Therefore, many suspect that his underlings are trying to influence the election.

And just this week, the Globe and Mail, Canada's leading newspaper, revealed that there is coordination between the separatists and the Trump administration.

A group of separatist leaders have traveled to Washington and offered oil and fresh water to the US in exchange for support. According to the newspaper, American Republican consultants should also have given them tactical advice before the referendum, on the spot in Alberta.

Some of the separatists have said that the currency of an independent Alberta should be the US dollar.

Mark Carney wants a clear no result in the referendum. He worries that some voters will vote for secession to "send a message to Ottawa."

- This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous scam that will lead to years of division and uncertainty.