Without rapid reinforcement, Ukraine can no longer defend itself effectively. Against Russia's ballistic robots, Ukraine does not have an adequate countermeasure. Nor do they manage to neutralize the jet engine-equipped shahed drones, which Russia has started to mass produce. Developing a method to shoot them down on a large scale takes at least four months.
During his trips to allied countries, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterates his gratitude for the military and financial support Ukraine has received, and pleads for more. He has been doing that for several years now.
Suppose Ukraine got everything it wanted. Would that be enough to bring Moscow to its knees, or at least to compromise?
High on Ukraine's military wish list is air defenses like the Patriot, to protect against missiles, glide bombs and jet-powered Shaheders. There are also more satellite and radar systems. They can make it possible to find and attack weapons factories, logistics and launch pads also deep inside Russia. Starlink is an option, but there are also European options. Destroying the production of robots would be much more noticeable than targeting individual missiles.
On the list are more cruise robots for such operations - they exist as German-Swedish Taurus, American Tomahawk or Ukraine's own Flamingo. There is help in pacifying the Black Sea, where the intense attacks since last summer now prevent almost all exports.
There are other equipment – all-terrain vehicles, armored cars, drones, spare parts and medical equipment.
- If Ukraine had received proper help already in 2014, or in 2022, we would not be where we are today. It didn't happen that way - but what if we put in a higher gear now? says a Swedish defense expert with a focus on the experiences from Ukraine, who wishes to remain anonymous.
That the war must become more costly and felt for Russia is emphasized by all the experts DN speaks with.
Russia has shown that it is ready to pay a high price. The entire Russian economy has been reshuffled, and in terms of human life the losses are staggering: About 1.3 million Russian soldiers have died or been injured since February 2022, according to several estimates. Right now, around 1,300 are killed or injured every day.
But greater military support is hardly enough. An increased economic pressure is just as central, and something that is often raised by the Ukrainian military as well.
Despite the EU imposing 21 sanctions packages, only certain parts of Russian trade are still affected. The isolation of Russia must become more effective and cover entire sectors, believes Taras Chmut, Ukrainian war analyst and head of the organization Come back alive, which supports Ukraine's defense forces.
Sanctions can be tightened against Russian banks and financial institutions - and against banks in other countries that have contact with them. The energy exports Russia has continued to have could be throttled, and the countries most affected could be compensated.
You can be much tougher on the Russian shadow fleet, and also punish the Greek shipping companies that made a lot of money from trading with Russian ships, says Fredrik Löjdquist, head of the Center for Eastern European Studies and Russia expert at the Institute for Foreign Policy.
European and US pressure on China and India to stop supporting Russia has been tame – components from these countries are necessary for Russia to be able to produce, for example, Iskander robots.
Another proposal mentioned is to increase the pressure on electronics companies in the West and to tighten the control of where their products end up. When Ukraine analyzes pieces of downed Russian drones and robots, it finds components of Western origin almost daily.
A combined economic and military effort would be felt by Russia.
But even diplomatically there are unexhausted paths.
The tone was cautiously positive after the latest meeting between Trump and Zelenskyi, in connection with the UN General Assembly in New York, but behind the words nothing seemed to have changed.
Real peace negotiations in the near term are unlikely - on the contrary, most things point to Russia increasing the pressure on Ukraine over the winter. Nevertheless, there are many indications that the Americans, Russians and Ukrainians all have an interest in getting the tripartite talks started, says Fredrik Löjdquist:
- Possible themes could be a ceasefire for the energy infrastructure and shipping across the Black Sea.
However, US mediators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have so far failed and have been described as ignorant and downright embarrassing. When Kushner recently appeared on link at an international conference in Kiev, his comments were met with jeers from the audience. That the participation of the United States is needed is not in question, but among experts there is a consensus that European actors could play a greater role.
- Perhaps under the leadership of the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb. He himself brought up the Helsinki Conference in 1975, where it was established that the borders of sovereign states are inviolable. Even if Russia broke that agreement, the format itself could be interesting. One can imagine that regional stability is discussed at a major conference that is difficult for Putin to turn down, says Isak Svensson, professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University and adds:
- Of course there are many reservations, but you have to try the diplomatic route - too. This does not mean that one is against military support.
In Ukraine, most people have a clear idea: As long as Vladimir Putin is in power, it is not possible to come to an agreement with the Kremlin. They do not see that a peace agreement would mean more than respite before new attacks. "The only long-term solution is a total Russian surrender," several commanders close to the front explained to me recently. They believe that Russia can change course only if it admits defeat, as Germany did after World War II.
But Taras Chmut does not give much even for the prospect of a fundamental change in the neighboring country:
- Russia is not Germany, Russians are not Germans. The only way to end the aggression would be a Russian collapse where Russia breaks up into smaller pieces.
There is no optimism in his voice.
The historical parallels are skewed, says Isak Svensson. Germany surrendered after being attacked by the Allies; no intervention in Russia has been relevant. The fact that Russia is also a nuclear power makes the matter completely different.
So what would bite Putin?
That the common man has to queue for hours to buy a few liters of petrol? An attack on central Moscow, making the Russian president look weak? Both, Fredrik Löjdquist believes, but emphasizes that the most important thing is to show that the support to Ukraine is conditional, long-term and stable. It could change the cost calculation for Russia.
But where the limits are and how big risks Russia is willing to take – militarily, politically and economically – we do not know. Europe's risk appetite has so far been significantly lower.
