Election results in Bosnia-Herzegovina show deep political schism

The three presidents to be elected in Sunday's elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina do not only represent different ethnic groups – the winning candidates also stand for diametrically different views on the federation's future. For a reform-oriented approach to the EU, or increased nationalism?

The statements on Sunday night reflected the polarized politics.

- We have shown that the freedom-loving, anti-fascist and civil Bosnia and Herzegovina is still alive, said Bosnian winner Denis Becirovic in a speech on Sunday evening to supporters in Sarajevo.

He represents the social democratic party SDP-BiH. The Bosniak holds one of three seats in the rotating presidency. The Bosnian Croat presidency was won by Darijana Filipovic, a newcomer from the nationalist but pro-EU party HDZ-BiH.

Developments are going in the opposite direction in Republika Srpska, the Serb-dominated part of the federation. There, Zeljka Cvijanovic of the separatist, pro-Russian SNSD party went to clear victory. She is also supported by the entity's most prominent politician, former president Milorad Dodik. He has been convicted of violating the constitution and is himself banned from standing in elections. In a speech in Banja Luka on election night, he thanked US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin for their support ahead of the election. As recently as last week, Dodik was in Moscow for a meeting with Putin.

The voter turnout of 42 percent was significantly lower than in previous elections, something that is interpreted as a sign of resignation and mistrust both towards politicians and towards the political system.

The electoral system in Bosnia-Herzegovina is complicated, and a result of the Dayton Agreement of 1995, which marked the end of the war in Bosnia. The political division of power, along ethnic lines; was originally a way to prevent new conflicts. Three decades later, the structure still locks the country down and prevents reform.

This applies, for example, to EU membership: Despite the fact that around three-quarters of the population, for example, are positive about the EU, the reform process is blocked by the nationalist parties in Republika Srpska.

Before the election, there were question marks about the reliability of a new, digitized election system; and in the weeks before, hundreds of cases of campaign violations had been reported. International election observers were expected to deliver a first report later on Monday.