Opposition leader Machado has returned to Venezuela to cheers. But Delcy Rodríguez wants to consolidate her power. And the USA is pursuing its own plans. It is unclear when there will be elections.
Politicians Machado, Rodríguez: They also have to mitigate the influence of the USA. Photo: AFP, Bloomberg [M] Handelsblatt
Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has brought forward the Christmas season in Venezuela to gain support for a longer holiday season.
Meanwhile, opposition leader María Corina Machado hopes to quickly expand her popularity into actual power.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently made it clear that Washington would manage the transition of office. He named 2027 as the target year for presidential elections.
Despite progress such as decreasing repression and a growing economy, the political situation remains complex due to the government's control of power structures and the influence of Washington.
Experts therefore consider elections next year to be unlikely.
The summary was created and editorially checked using AI.
Salvador. In the shopping centers and authorities in Caracas, festive decorations are already shining in mid-November. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has brought forward the Christmas season. This marks the beginning of a longer holiday season in Venezuela that extends into January. Rodríguez is betting that politics will fade into the background and that it will gain popularity in the meantime.
María Corina Machado, on the other hand, is pushing for early elections. Almost three weeks ago, the opposition leader returned to Caracas to great cheers. She must fear that her popularity will dwindle with each passing month until the election.
In fact, neither of the two politicians sets the pace. That's what Washington does. But even if Machado wins the elections, it is by no means certain that she will be able to govern Venezuela. The ideology of Rodríguez’s predecessor Nicolás Maduro, known as “Chavism,” continues to control important parts of the state apparatus.
4,656 protests were registered in Venezuela from January to August.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined the next steps at the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris on Monday: the Supreme Court is to be replaced in mid-December, followed by the national electoral authority. The path should then be cleared for presidential elections, if possible as early as 2027.
This timetable is not new. It was negotiated between representatives of the government and the opposition with the participation of Washington. The fact that Rubio once again publicly reaffirms it is intended to show that Washington wants to keep the political transition firmly in its hands.
First political progress visible
In fact, since Maduro's arrest at the beginning of January, Washington has been following the course announced at the time: First, Venezuela should be stabilized, then the economy should be rebuilt and finally the transition to a democratically elected government should be initiated.
Initial progress can be seen: the security situation has stabilized, political repression has eased, and numerous political prisoners have been released. However, more than 300 people are still in prison for political reasons. The economy is growing again, but high inflation and low wages have so far prevented a broad recovery.
The overall political situation has not changed due to the return of María Corina Machado. Anja DargatzRepresentative of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Venezuela
President Rodríguez presents herself to the Americans as a reliable partner who supports the political transition. Internally, it clings to the existing power structures. Anja Dargatz, representative of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Venezuela, describes this policy as “relaxation that is necessary to maintain power.”
Observers believe it is conceivable that Rodríguez will first hold local and regional elections next year in order to further delay the presidential election and consolidate her political base. The ruling party PSUV has better organizational structures nationwide than Machado's party Vente. They would first have to forge alliances with other opposition parties locally - and make political compromises in the process.
Delcy Rodríguez, interim president of Venezuela: Holds similar views to her predecessor Nicolás Maduro. Photo: Bloomberg
Institutions slow down the transition
Luis Palacios, lawyer and political activist from the opposition Primero Justicia party, sees further hurdles that must be overcome before the presidential election can be held. Not only do the institutions need to be replaced, the electoral rules also need to be reformed so that free and fair elections are possible. Palacios doubts that the country will be able to implement this by mid-2027.
The replacement of the Supreme Court (Tribunal Supremo de Justicia, TSJ) has already begun. A selection committee reviews applications for judge positions. However, the final decision lies with the National Assembly, in which Nicolás Maduro's political current continues to have great influence. The National Electoral Council (CNE) will then also be replaced. He ultimately decides on the date of the presidential election.
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Machado is not at the negotiating table for any of this. She is back in the country - thousands of people lined the highway on her journey to the capital at the end of October, and around 200 motorcyclists accompanied her motorcade. However, the major political appearances with which she could permanently mobilize her supporters have so far been a long time coming. “The overall political situation has not changed due to the return of María Corina Machado,” says Dargatz. She now has to quickly convert the enthusiasm into political influence, says Palacios.
Three times more protests than last year
Meanwhile, the political mood in the country continues to be in flux. Outside Caracas there are again small demonstrations and car parades. Social discontent is also increasing.
According to the observer center Observatorio Venezolano de Conflictividad Social, 4,656 protests were registered from January to August, almost three times as many as in the same period last year. This was primarily about power outages, poor public services and declining purchasing power, but increasingly also about political demands.
Machado could use this discontent politically. For many Venezuelans, she represents the hope for democracy and an end to the rule of Chavismo. She led the opposition to an election victory in 2024, which Maduro did not recognize. While the actual presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia went into exile, Machado remained in the country despite political persecution. She only left Venezuela at the end of 2025 to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. After ten months abroad she is now back.
Maria Corina Machado, opposition leader in Venezuela: Just a few months ago she seemed much more willing to conflict. Photo: Getty Images
However, Machado's appearance speaks against an open conflict between the two candidates. The opposition leader is now appearing conciliatory. “Negotiations mean offering guarantees to those who make this transition possible,” she explained.
She had recently called for those responsible for the regime to be brought to justice. Now she avoids direct attacks on Rodríguez. Observers in Caracas suspect that Washington may have encouraged them to exercise restraint. It is also conceivable that Machado wants to correct her image as a lone fighter and present herself as a politician who can bring different social forces together.
Candidates must manage US influence
Palacios warns against making the presidential elections the sole goal of the transition.
Because the balance of power in the background has not changed since Maduro's arrest. The current parliament could make it more difficult for a new president to govern. The security forces would also have to accept a change of power.
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Added to this is the influence of Washington, which any future government will have to deal with. The USA has already secured extensive rights to Venezuela's oil. Private American companies should expand production, while Washington receives preferential access to part of the production. A future government under Machado or other elected leadership would have to decide whether to accept or renegotiate these agreements. Their political and legal scope is likely to be limited.
Rodríguez can bet that the economic situation will improve and that she will gain approval. Machado, on the other hand, must turn her popularity into political power while it lasts. Rodríguez can wait, Machado cannot.
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